If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Moderator: Slitherine Core

Post Reply
AgrippaMaxentius
Lance Corporal - SdKfz 222
Lance Corporal - SdKfz 222
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:16 pm
Contact:

If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by AgrippaMaxentius »

What are your thoughts on the repercussions of Franco losing the war? Would the Republicans possibly have supported France against the Germans during WW2? Or would they remain neutral throughout? How would this change the course of politics in your opinion?
A strategy wargamer and youtube director, if Strategy and Voice-Roleplay is your thing, make a quick stop by the channel. Thank you, and keep up the fight Herr General! https://www.youtube.com/user/AgrippaMaxentius
Navaronegun
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Posts: 946
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 5:39 pm
Location: Arizona, USA -7 GMT

Re: If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by Navaronegun »

AgrippaMaxentius wrote:What are your thoughts on the repercussions of Franco losing the war? Would the Republicans possibly have supported France against the Germans during WW2? Or would they remain neutral throughout? How would this change the course of politics in your opinion?

Well, *how* does the Republic win? For example, if we assume the divergance point was Republican success at the Battle of the Ebro in the Summer of 1938, *after* the Workers' Party of Marxist Unification (POUM) had been crushed by the Stalinist Communist Party of Spain, then you could easily see a Stalinist Client state (far more boholden ideologically and practically to the USSR than Franco was to Germany and Italy) in Spain which followed the lead of their Soviet Patron in 1939 in signing the Molotov Pact. In fact, you could argue that British suspicion of Soviet motives, and that factor precluding a Franco-British effort to resist Hitler over the the Sudetenland, would be even more heightened by a Spanish Soviet Client, guaranteeing an inevitable walk to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Danzig Crisis. I think the question then becomes, assuming a Polish and Western Campaign in 1939 and 1940 that occurs historically, what do the Axis do then?
I think the best way to describe our operations to date is that they have violated every recognized principle of war.
General Eisenhower, Supreme Commander Allied Expeditionary Force, on the Tunisian Campaign, 27 DEC 1942.
AgrippaMaxentius
Lance Corporal - SdKfz 222
Lance Corporal - SdKfz 222
Posts: 26
Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2014 4:16 pm
Contact:

Re: If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by AgrippaMaxentius »

Navaronegun wrote:
AgrippaMaxentius wrote:What are your thoughts on the repercussions of Franco losing the war? Would the Republicans possibly have supported France against the Germans during WW2? Or would they remain neutral throughout? How would this change the course of politics in your opinion?

Well, *how* does the Republic win? For example, if we assume the divergance point was Republican success at the Battle of the Ebro in the Summer of 1938, *after* the Workers' Party of Marxist Unification (POUM) had been crushed by the Stalinist Communist Party of Spain, then you could easily see a Stalinist Client state (far more boholden ideologically and practically to the USSR than Franco was to Germany and Italy) in Spain which followed the lead of their Soviet Patron in 1939 in signing the Molotov Pact. In fact, you could argue that British suspicion of Soviet motives, and that factor precluding a Franco-British effort to resist Hitler over the the Sudetenland, would be even more heightened by a Spanish Soviet Client, guaranteeing an inevitable walk to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Danzig Crisis. I think the question then becomes, assuming a Polish and Western Campaign in 1939 and 1940 that occurs historically, what do the Axis do then?
First of all THANK YOU FOR GETTING BACK TO ME! :D Absolutely love someone willing to indulge my crazy fantasies. My thoughts were perhaps with this soviet client state you speak of "I never imagined such a possibility, more a conglomeration of all leftist parties, POUM, CNT/FAI etc into a unified Republican government. I realize this is a bit absurd as the Anarchist CNT/FAI never took a leadership role, which some would argue assisted in the defeat of the Republic, I never realized POUM was a major player as I recall from George Orwells "Homage to Catalonia" that they weren't the strongest of the leftist parties.

This is what I think could have happened, one of two scenarios. And I may be, completely full of crap so feel free to correct me. I was always under the impression that the Spanish Republic would have sided with the western allies, but you raise some great points about the Stalinist parties that were active in Spain at the time. Perhaps Hitler would have had a legitimate reason to attack Spain in his mind because of it's leftist leanings. Or, more likely Spain would have given basing rights to the Western and Eastern allies which may have made the defence of France more robust, perhaps leading to a less bloody WWII? Please get back to me, you clearly know alot more about this than I do, but I love to think of the possibilities.
A strategy wargamer and youtube director, if Strategy and Voice-Roleplay is your thing, make a quick stop by the channel. Thank you, and keep up the fight Herr General! https://www.youtube.com/user/AgrippaMaxentius
Navaronegun
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Posts: 946
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 5:39 pm
Location: Arizona, USA -7 GMT

Re: If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by Navaronegun »

AgrippaMaxentius wrote:
Navaronegun wrote: Well, *how* does the Republic win? For example, if we assume the divergance point was Republican success at the Battle of the Ebro in the Summer of 1938, *after* the Workers' Party of Marxist Unification (POUM) had been crushed by the Stalinist Communist Party of Spain, then you could easily see a Stalinist Client state (far more boholden ideologically and practically to the USSR than Franco was to Germany and Italy) in Spain which followed the lead of their Soviet Patron in 1939 in signing the Molotov Pact. In fact, you could argue that British suspicion of Soviet motives, and that factor precluding a Franco-British effort to resist Hitler over the the Sudetenland, would be even more heightened by a Spanish Soviet Client, guaranteeing an inevitable walk to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Danzig Crisis. I think the question then becomes, assuming a Polish and Western Campaign in 1939 and 1940 that occurs historically, what do the Axis do then?
First of all THANK YOU FOR GETTING BACK TO ME! :D Absolutely love someone willing to indulge my crazy fantasies. My thoughts were perhaps with this soviet client state you speak of "I never imagined such a possibility, more a conglomeration of all leftist parties, POUM, CNT/FAI etc into a unified Republican government. I realize this is a bit absurd as the Anarchist CNT/FAI never took a leadership role, which some would argue assisted in the defeat of the Republic, I never realized POUM was a major player as I recall from George Orwells "Homage to Catalonia" that they weren't the strongest of the leftist parties.

This is what I think could have happened, one of two scenarios. And I may be, completely full of crap so feel free to correct me. I was always under the impression that the Spanish Republic would have sided with the western allies, but you raise some great points about the Stalinist parties that were active in Spain at the time. Perhaps Hitler would have had a legitimate reason to attack Spain in his mind because of it's leftist leanings. Or, more likely Spain would have given basing rights to the Western and Eastern allies which may have made the defence of France more robust, perhaps leading to a less bloody WWII? Please get back to me, you clearly know alot more about this than I do, but I love to think of the possibilities.

Well, Orwell had his prejudices, being so close to the events. My point is firstly, you need to establish a divergence point. When could the Republic have won? In my opinion you have two choices:

1.) The Rebellion is Crushed Early: Summer 1936-early 1937. Franco is stymied, and has no successes militarily. The outcome of this would be chaos. The Military rebellion was a symptom of the disintegrating political situation in Spain. Spain would be wracked by internal problems, and in no position to aid the Western Allies, let alone fit into their strategic equations in the Second World War. One could argue that Hitler, if he deemed it militarily necessary, would be more likely to invade Spain/violate Spain''s territorial integrity than if he had an ostensible "Brother in Arms" (Franco) to contend with. So here we have a Spain that is neither an asset to the Allies, nor an impediment to the Axis.

2.) The Battle of The Ebro: So here, we have to remember that an agreement by the Allies to take a stand against Hitler over the Sudetenland in 1938 was dead at birth because the British did not trust Stalin. This in turn led Stalin to sign the Molotov Pact, giving Hitler a free hand in Poland and the West.

So, a Soviet Client Spain would heighten British suspicion of Stalin. So you have a historical Poland and Western Campaign. The trick becomes Barbarossa. Does Hitler engage in a two front war when he attacks Stalin in 1941? Does his timetable change?
I think the best way to describe our operations to date is that they have violated every recognized principle of war.
General Eisenhower, Supreme Commander Allied Expeditionary Force, on the Tunisian Campaign, 27 DEC 1942.
danijocker90
Sergeant - 7.5 cm FK 16 nA
Sergeant - 7.5 cm FK 16 nA
Posts: 222
Joined: Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:53 pm
Location: Spain

Re: If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by danijocker90 »

German invasion of Spain. Operation Torch lands on Spain. I don't know what would have happened but nothing good for civil population. I think that the neutral status of Spain on the world wars were good to the country.
Navaronegun
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Captain - Heavy Cruiser
Posts: 946
Joined: Sun Sep 22, 2013 5:39 pm
Location: Arizona, USA -7 GMT

Re: If the Spanish Republic had won the Spanish Civil War

Post by Navaronegun »

danijocker90 wrote:German invasion of Spain. Operation Torch lands on Spain. I don't know what would have happened but nothing good for civil population. I think that the neutral status of Spain on the world wars were good to the country.
I agree with you. The Nationalist victory saved Spain from Axis invasion. A Republican victory would have likely guaranteed Spain's conquest by the Axis after the fall of France. And a Republican Spain would have been a Strategic liability for the Allies in 1940-1941, not an asset.
I think the best way to describe our operations to date is that they have violated every recognized principle of war.
General Eisenhower, Supreme Commander Allied Expeditionary Force, on the Tunisian Campaign, 27 DEC 1942.
Post Reply

Return to “General Discussion”