Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Moderators: Slitherine Core, FOGR Design

Post Reply
youngr
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Presteigne

Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by youngr » Sun Jun 01, 2014 3:32 pm

Hi Folks

Thanks to all at the Games Expo at Birmingham, especially to James 'hammy' Hamilton for organising all the games in a relaxed and enjoyable atmosphere. Thanks to my opponents to for 3 excellent friendly games.

I brought an unused army for me plus my son and his friend who had fun exploring the huge show and spending all my cash on teenage rubbish :)

An Analysis of the Games

(All games 650pt armies, 5ft x 3ft tables, flank sectors reduced to 10in)

My Army – Later Louis XIV French 1694

3 TC
4 x average infantry BG’s, 5 musket*, IF bayonet / 1 pike unarmoured
2 x superior infantry BG’s, 5 musket*, IF bayonet / 1 pike armoured
1 x 2 medium artillery
1 x 4 superior DH, unarmoured, pistol/pistol
1 x 2 elite DH, unarmoured, pistol/pistol
2 x 4 average dragoons, musket
1 x 2 average LH Hussars, carbine/pistol

Total 12 BG’s

Sadly, I recorded all combat cohesion tests and death rolls. Although the records from 3 games are hardly going to be statistically reliable it might be interesting reading (well, for me anyway).

GAME 1

Versus Ray Boyles - Anglo-Dutch:
3 TC; 2 x average 5m/1p; 3 x superior 5m/1p; 2 x average Swedes 4m/2p salvo; 2 x 3 dragoons; 1 x 4 average DH; 1 x 2 medium artillery. Some of the foot BG’s had regimental guns also. Total 11 BG’s

Essentially, the battle was an infantry fight in the centre where Ray had the advantage in firepower and numbers and me attacking down one flank with cav/drgns/art. I eventually gained an advantage on both flanks though it was taking far too long. My centre was precariously close to disintegration. The game timed out at 3 attrition points each.

Cohesion Test (CT):
Me - total 16, failed 9 (failure rate 56.2%, average failure roll 5)
Ray – total 14, failed 4 (failure rate 28.6%, average failure roll 5.5)

Death Rolls (DR):
Me - total 23, failed 7 (failure rate 30.4%, average failure roll 2.3)
Ray – total 26, failed 5 (failure rate 19.2%, average failure roll 1.4)

From this you can see that there was little difference in the total number of CT and DR made by both players. However, Ray’s dice rolls were more successful overall than mine. My high cohesion test failure was pretty devastating. My DR failure was also higher but you have to take this in context. Ray’s infantry firepower was much better than mine and is partly reflected in my higher average DR failure. That’s the trouble with 5 infantry bases BG’s shooting with 2 dice at long range then musket* at
short range with 4 dice (usually less after units are disrupted). If the game had continued, Ray would likely to have broken my centre and army before my flank attacks were successful.

GAME 2

Versus Wayne Charlton - Transylvanian post-1600 (I think):
3 TC, IIRC 3 x average LH bow/sword; 1 x superior LH carbine/sword; 2 x 3 average dragoons; 1 x superior gendarmes, heavily armoured, heavy lance/sword; 1 x superior heavily armoured pistol/pistol; 1 x average armoured pistol/pistol; 1 x average cavalry armoured bow/sword; 1 x 6 superior infantry arquebus/sword; 1 x 2 medium artillery. Total 12 BG’s (I realise now that there’s something wrong here – no dragoons should be in the list though they were definitely on the table???)

The enemy army was deployed in 2 separate groups, one on each flank and the camp in an enclosed field, central left. My army was deployed with infantry in the centre, cavalry behind and dragoons on the flanks. My right flank disintegrated quickly with my dragoons shot up immediately by enemy dragoons and enemy artillery making short work of an infantry BG defending my artillery. I lost 3 BG’s very quickly. My artillery/musket shooting against enemy cavalry was desultory so I advanced my infantry and fanned out towards the flanks. I started to make inroads into the enemy, shooting cavalry and forcing charges. Eventually I managed to take out 4 attrition points off my opponent for no further losses for me (I lost total 6 attrition points). In 1 more bound I might have taken my artillery back, taken the enemy artillery and also the lone enemy infantry BG that was fragmented and down to 4 bases fighting 2 of my infantry BG’s but the game timed out. I felt I was in a dominate position at the end of the game.

Cohesion Test (CT):
Me - total 22, failed 6 (failure rate 27.3%, average failure roll 5.5)
Wayne – total 14, failed 7 (failure rate 50%, average failure roll 5.4)

Death Rolls (DR):
Me - total 16, failed 7 (failure rate 43.8%, average failure roll 1.4)
Wayne – total 24, failed 8 (failure rate 33.3%, average failure roll 2.9)

My CT’s were far luckier than my opponent’s overall even though I was forced to roll more times due to Wayne’s better rate & number of shooting hits - mostly in the first half of the game. It was a different story with the DR’s though. I had a high rate of DR failure with several 1 & 2’s compared to Wayne’s better rolling. His higher average failure roll was due to the high number of hits I inflicted in close combat and close range shooting in the latter half of the game.

GAME 3

Versus Simon Clarke – West Sudanese:
1 GC, 1 TC, 1 Ally TC; 2 x average LH javelin; 2 x 8 LF poor bow; 2 x 8 MF bow; 3 x 6 MF bow; 3 x 4 superior camel Tuareg Ally;
Flank March 1 TC; 1 x 4 cavalry??
Total 14 BG’s

More than half of the table was blocked off by rough terrain. I therefore deliberately deployed my camp on the short open side to invite a flank march. However, I totally lost focus on the game after this, deploying incorrectly and attacking like a muppet. My opponent had the camelry on the open flank with a flank march. On the other flank were enemy light troops only. It would have been far wiser to stick to my original plan and hold defensively (despite being boring), waiting for my opponent to come to me but no I advanced recklessly. I should have at least moved infantry to the flank to fob off the camels and the cavalry into a position to charge the MF bow in the open with infantry support but I even failed to do this. I should have known better as I have often used the Sudanese so why I lost focus I’m not sure – a combination of things perhaps. Anyway, I deserved to lose this game!

My dragoons and artillery failed to do any harm to the Tuareg who swept aside all in their path. My infantry attacked the bowmen in the centre though outnumbered in shooting. Eventually some of mine charged in and caused some damage to the enemy. I failed hopelessly to halt the light troops sweeping down the other flank, losing my other dragoons in short order. Inevitably, my army folded when the camels swept in to attack my infantry flanks. I managed to get 4 attrition points off Simon by the close of play.

Cohesion Test (CT):
Me - total 27, failed 8 (failure rate 29.6%, average failure roll 6.6)
Simon – total 15, failed 8 (failure rate 53.6%, average failure roll 4.6)

Death Rolls (DR):
Me - total 16, failed 8 (failure rate 50%, average failure roll 1.4)
Simon – total 32, failed 8 (failure rate 25%, average failure roll 2.1)

My CT’s were far luckier than Simon’s even though I had to roll far more than him. Also my higher average failure roll indicates my BG’s were often in more vulnerable positions – I was just lucky here several times. My army might have folded even quicker if I’d had more CT failures. However, it was again a different story with the DR’s. My DR’s were poor with a string of 1’s and 2’s. Simon had far more DR’s to make – mostly due to my successful long range hits but noticeably usually just in 1’s – but had a low failure percentage. His higher average failure roll was due to my higher hits in infantry close combat near the close of the game. Simon’s army being so large could of course absorb more damage then mine also.

Lessons:

Focus on the bloody game, stick to a plan.
Keep my CT dice.
Change my DR dice. (My failure percentage was consistently more than my opponents but before I say it always seems so, ultimately, I don’t think it was why I lost or was doing well during a game).

So, was it worth being a saddo and recording all this? Well, yes as I think it helps me look at each game more closely rather than just commenting on good/bad dice runs. At the very least, I was so busy recording dice scores that I failed to blaspheme/chuck dice any time I got a run of bad luck :lol:

See you at Manchester & Koblenz for more punishment :lol:

Cheers

Richard

peterrjohnston
Field of Glory Moderator
Field of Glory Moderator
Posts: 1506
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2007 11:51 am

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by peterrjohnston » Sun Jun 01, 2014 6:10 pm

If you are "in Spain" with a reduced minimum of 4 line cavalry, should you not also have at least the 3 BG's of militia P&S listed under optional troops?

ravenflight
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:52 am

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by ravenflight » Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:58 pm

Interesting analysis.

I run the Louis XIV as well, and built my army originally for the later period (5musket&1Pike) but moved to the earlier period so that I could armour my horse.

I also noticed that I seemed to fail a lot more CT's than my opponent.

I think that (in essence) the loss of shooting is dramatically larger than the increased impact effect.

I would not build this army again if I had my time again.

ravenflight
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:52 am

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by ravenflight » Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:59 pm

peterrjohnston wrote:If you are "in Spain" with a reduced minimum of 4 line cavalry, should you not also have at least the 3 BG's of militia P&S listed under optional troops?
Correct - but there is the chance of modified lists given 650ap?

list_lurker
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1003
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:51 am
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by list_lurker » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:07 pm

Hi Richard,

just to add a little about our third game. Trying to measure CT success rate must consider the target value needed. Discounting the little bit of infantry close combat we had at the end. The main chunk of infantry vs infantry shooting exchange had the following factors.

The French 5 & 1s mainly average , rarely had rear support and the TC have very little radius of effect. So your required score for a CT is likely going to be 8 (6 shooting bow needing 4's likely to get 1 per 2)

The Sudanese bowmen in 6's mainly average mostly had rear support and a GC in tow. The French long range shooting of 2 dice can't get 1p2. So the Sudanese target is 4 (assuming they hit twice to cause a test .. only a 25% chance)

I know there were some superior French and Sudanese in 8s which throw it out a bit more. But you don't need to be as lucky to throw a 4 as you do an 8 :D

It was that dreaded 4" range that cause the French maximum issues. :oops: :D

thanks
Simon

youngr
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Presteigne

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by youngr » Mon Jun 02, 2014 3:19 pm

Thanks Simon.

Indeed and shows how lucky many of my CT rolls were. The 4" range is deadly and especially if outnumbered as I was.

Mind you at Britcon last year I had a similar situation with my massed West Sudanese bowmen plus GC plus rear support versus Anglo-Dutch but the dice Gods were against me. I lost all my bowmen before any contact was made for virtually no effect on the enemy. It was grim!

Cheers

Richard

madaxeman
Major-General - Jagdtiger
Major-General - Jagdtiger
Posts: 2939
Joined: Thu Nov 16, 2006 5:15 am
Location: London, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by madaxeman » Mon Jun 02, 2014 4:06 pm

Following on from Simon's comments, does "average failure roll" mean "what I actually rolled" or "what the score was to fail that particular test" ?
http://www.madaxeman.com
Become a fan of Madaxeman on Facebook at Madaxeman.com's Facebook Page.

nigelemsen
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1065
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm
Location: Alderholt, Near Ringwood, Dorset, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by nigelemsen » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:48 pm

Richard, don't forget your bowmen massacred my pike shot on the 4"... Testing morale as poor doesn't help, the volume of bow shooting dice coming over at my long range was .... Well... Day became night... And then it was night night from him and good night from me :)

Although I do remember a bit of dice god entertainment around your 2x armoured units not hitting toffee for far too many rounds...
Proelium: Wargaming rules for 3000B.C. - 1901A.D.
Hordes of Models and Buckets of Dice
Web: www.quickplayrules.com
Social: www.facebook.com/quickplayrules
Twitter: @quickplayrules

youngr
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Presteigne

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by youngr » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:24 am

madaxeman wrote:Following on from Simon's comments, does "average failure roll" mean "what I actually rolled" or "what the score was to fail that particular test" ?
The average of what was actually rolled

youngr
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Presteigne

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by youngr » Tue Jun 03, 2014 7:29 am

nigelemsen wrote:Richard, don't forget your bowmen massacred my pike shot on the 4"... Testing morale as poor doesn't help, the volume of bow shooting dice coming over at my long range was .... Well... Day became night... And then it was night night from him and good night from me :)

Although I do remember a bit of dice god entertainment around your 2x armoured units not hitting toffee for far too many rounds...
They did indeed - I remember it well. Also you firing like fury at my cavalry for absolutely no effect whatsoever. You were unlucky there for sure :shock:

Cheers

Richard

nigelemsen
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1065
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm
Location: Alderholt, Near Ringwood, Dorset, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by nigelemsen » Tue Jun 03, 2014 8:06 am

youngr wrote:
nigelemsen wrote:Richard, don't forget your bowmen massacred my pike shot on the 4"... Testing morale as poor doesn't help, the volume of bow shooting dice coming over at my long range was .... Well... Day became night... And then it was night night from him and good night from me :)

Although I do remember a bit of dice god entertainment around your 2x armoured units not hitting toffee for far too many rounds...
They did indeed - I remember it well. Also you firing like fury at my cavalry for absolutely no effect whatsoever. You were unlucky there for sure :shock:

Cheers

Richard
Picked my army already for this year (Japanese)... Not a Poor BG in sight anywhere.. and about half the army size :) But about the same volume of painting to do as last year...
Proelium: Wargaming rules for 3000B.C. - 1901A.D.
Hordes of Models and Buckets of Dice
Web: www.quickplayrules.com
Social: www.facebook.com/quickplayrules
Twitter: @quickplayrules

list_lurker
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1003
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:51 am
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by list_lurker » Tue Jun 03, 2014 10:57 am

Picked my army already for this year (Japanese)...
that sounds all too sensible a choice Nigel! are you leaving it to me to bring some off the wall army to be the whipping boy? :shock:

I'm still reeling from when your unarmoured Mongol cavalry rode over my superior Spanish Tercios and Cuirassiers frontally at Warfare! :D

nigelemsen
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1065
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm
Location: Alderholt, Near Ringwood, Dorset, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by nigelemsen » Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:13 am

list_lurker wrote:
Picked my army already for this year (Japanese)...
that sounds all too sensible a choice Nigel! are you leaving it to me to bring some off the wall army to be the whipping boy? :shock:

I'm still reeling from when your unarmoured Mongol cavalry rode over my superior Spanish Tercios and Cuirassiers frontally at Warfare! :D
Hi Simon: I am still dinning out on that one beacon of hope... :) I do remember you did help with bad morale dice at a key point... also the "oohh.. light horse can march a long way in one turn"...

My Japanese list can be seen on my blog and contains a just few mounted armoured cav bow types... ;) "not the you should bring the 8 bgs of superior warriors, 4x being heavy armoured very sensible approach"... Japanese with a PBI +3 and still 13 BGs... Mmmm yummy...

I had wanted to do the Ikko Ikki as it is a much more interesting historic army, but after reading your blog and re-reading I chickened out...

Yeap your welcome to bring the wall army... :) I could do with a year off... 2012.. 10pts for the whole comp... 2013.. same.. 2014.. think its time to go for 11pts :)
Proelium: Wargaming rules for 3000B.C. - 1901A.D.
Hordes of Models and Buckets of Dice
Web: www.quickplayrules.com
Social: www.facebook.com/quickplayrules
Twitter: @quickplayrules

list_lurker
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1003
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:51 am
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by list_lurker » Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:33 am

One thing is certain it won't be Western Sudanese, I think they are a bit too good! Where is the fun in that!

ravenflight
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Brigadier-General - 15 cm Nblwf 41
Posts: 1966
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:52 am

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by ravenflight » Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:33 am

list_lurker wrote:I'm still reeling from when your unarmoured Mongol cavalry rode over my superior Spanish Tercios and Cuirassiers frontally at Warfare! :D
My greatest claim to fame was when my Light foot evaded from a general commanded MF formation. The LF got caught in the back and WON the combat followed by killing the general who went in the front rank causing the disrupted MF to frag and a unit nearby to disrupt or frag (I can't remember now). Was glorious.

Only done anything remotely like that once!

nigelemsen
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1065
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm
Location: Alderholt, Near Ringwood, Dorset, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by nigelemsen » Tue Jun 03, 2014 11:55 am

list_lurker wrote:One thing is certain it won't be Western Sudanese, I think they are a bit too good! Where is the fun in that!
none what so ever... however when i played them a challenge (no traeug's option) they are not that good - Last... :) Dave did well (3rd) with the proper selections..

My "fun army" was going to be the central african list with nothing but warrior IF.. modeled using zulu figs... however thats just asking for trouble from the mounted armies...
Proelium: Wargaming rules for 3000B.C. - 1901A.D.
Hordes of Models and Buckets of Dice
Web: www.quickplayrules.com
Social: www.facebook.com/quickplayrules
Twitter: @quickplayrules

list_lurker
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1003
Joined: Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:51 am
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by list_lurker » Tue Jun 03, 2014 12:07 pm

however thats just asking for trouble from the mounted armies...
sometimes you just have to take that on the chin if you like the PBI (like me)

youngr
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Sergeant First Class - Elite Panzer IIIL
Posts: 413
Joined: Sun Apr 22, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Presteigne

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by youngr » Tue Jun 03, 2014 2:46 pm

list_lurker wrote:One thing is certain it won't be Western Sudanese, I think they are a bit too good! Where is the fun in that!
Not so good versus Japanese foot though...........

nigelemsen
Major - Jagdpanther
Major - Jagdpanther
Posts: 1065
Joined: Tue Apr 01, 2008 6:54 pm
Location: Alderholt, Near Ringwood, Dorset, UK
Contact:

Re: Games at Expo - an analysis of failure?

Post by nigelemsen » Tue Jun 03, 2014 3:04 pm

youngr wrote:
list_lurker wrote:One thing is certain it won't be Western Sudanese, I think they are a bit too good! Where is the fun in that!
Not so good versus Japanese foot though...........
that's only a few armies... (me and possible Lynette). Its going to be superior 5+1 lists i'm concerned about... :(
Proelium: Wargaming rules for 3000B.C. - 1901A.D.
Hordes of Models and Buckets of Dice
Web: www.quickplayrules.com
Social: www.facebook.com/quickplayrules
Twitter: @quickplayrules

Post Reply

Return to “After Action Reports (AAR's)”