Heroes pattern?

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MaxDoge
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Heroes pattern?

Post by MaxDoge » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:03 pm

Anyone else notice a potential little pattern when receiving heroes on units? I know people say it's completely random and this can easily be a coincidence but this is what just happened to me.

Never finished GC before and reached 43' last time on General before I got bored with using one type of unit each, I was hero farming a bit and usually taking less than ideal fights to gain more XP and kills faster because I had too much prestige, and I was mostly receiving defense heroes on my units.

But now that I decided to finally finish GC for once and I started a new one on Rommel, I'm playing more cautious and at the end of Poland some of my units have no casualties, on both of my Stukas I received +3 Attack around North Warsaw. And now on the next map my next hero is again +3 Attack on artillery that has 132/0 KD ratio. So in a nutshell, I so far received 3 heroes and all of them have +3 attack :shock: Even when I played the alternate South Warsaw map for fun my Stuka got a +2 attack, infantry +2 attack and +2 defense on arty.

My Stukas are going to be insane, but what are the odds of that? Is that the game being programmed to give more attack if I'm taking no casualties, and giving me more defense in the previous playthrough when I was taking casualties? Any similar experiences? :)

goose_2
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by goose_2 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:00 pm

nope random...It feels like I am being blessed prolifically with a bunch of +1 Movement heroes on my Ultimate playthrough. Daddy is very pleased with this as it does make my job much easier. ;)

Not that it is ever easy though
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Kawaleria
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by Kawaleria » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:40 pm

Thank you MaxDoge for saying this. I agree that Heroes are NOT random ! The proof of this is various players claim they always get spotting hero or always get attack not defense heroes etc. The Reason for this is they have different styles playing the game. Style of playing meaning typical actions triggers certain hero types

I noticed that a hero class you get depends on enemy action during a fight.... For instence if you attack and an enemy defending. In case attack was succesful you have a great chance to get defense hero because you take an opponent action as hero type

If enemy is attacking you and they fail completely there is great possibility you get attack hero..... Because it doesnt matter you defended well. Again you take enemy action as hero class

If enemy is moving towards you and you anticipate the direction, next turn you fire artillery then you have a great chance to achive a movement hero ... Why ? because it was opponent action to getting close to your unit

I am not sure only about range and spotting bonuses but i am 99% sure there is a special script which distribute heroes...

I was thinking lately to post something about not random heroe s and you beat me to it :-)

Well maybe one of the game developers could spoil my suprise ideas and say there is no pattern because they didnt write any code for it... well i would not believe it. Statistics say something else

dalfrede
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by dalfrede » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:03 pm

Get serious people.
Do you really think the Devs would take the time to make a non random Hero generator.
If you notice, all the 'non random' Heroes people list are different.

When playing GC you should get over 100 heroes.
That is a lot of opportunity to get patterns to remember.
Statistics shows when you have a lot of data, you can always find patterns.

When I played AK my Stuka's first two heroes were Spotting and Movement, what does that suggest, other than bad luck.

If you truly believe there is an algorithm behind it.
Write down the algorithm so we all can study it, and see how well it matches what we all get. :mrgreen:
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Panzerpimp
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by Panzerpimp » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:16 am

Kawaleria wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:40 pm
I agree that Heroes are NOT random ! The proof of this is various players claim they always get spotting hero or always get attack not defense heroes etc.
Heroes are random... Really, It's the truth.
As far as I remember you just have less of a chance to get crazy +3 heroes... (Game uses a dice and you have more chance to get +1 heroes... Correct me if I am wrong. :? ) You just tend to remember bad heroes with some +1 spotting ones on artillery etc. which is annoying.
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captainjack
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by captainjack » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:07 am

1in 35 chance of +3 attack (also +3def). So 3 in a row is 1 in (35×35×35), about 1 in 40,000. Pretty unusual, but not completely ridiculous.

In contrast, spotting is 1 in 5, so 3 spots in a row is 1 in 125. That's almost to be expected in a dlc campaign, and not totally outrageous even in a scenario. .

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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by goose_2 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:44 pm

I am thankful that most of my units have not been awarded with a +1 Spotting, except 1 of my Infantry which I upgraded to a Kradschutzen ;)

I am being inundated with +1 movement which I am very thankful as it is making DV doable on some of these insane maps

Busy preparing for how it will be possible on Storming Stalingrad
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Panzerpimp
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by Panzerpimp » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:14 pm

goose_2 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:44 pm
Busy preparing for how it will be possible on Storming Stalingrad
Nice, I am also storming Stalingrad right now. First time seeing this huge city map. :)
I have a huge stockpile of prestige but my heroes... They are not great - spotting upon spotting upon spotting with an occasional movement hero. I am thinking about a mod that bans spotting heroes on artillery and other non-scouting units...
Not complaining, but I'm getting jealous. I want some of these mythical +3 attack heroes. :lol:
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PeteMitchell
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by PeteMitchell » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:22 pm

Panzerpimp wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:14 pm
goose_2 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:44 pm
Busy preparing for how it will be possible on Storming Stalingrad
Nice, I am also storming Stalingrad right now. First time seeing this huge city map. :)
I have a huge stockpile of prestige but my heroes... They are not great - spotting upon spotting upon spotting with an occasional movement hero. I am thinking about a mod that bans spotting heroes on artillery and other non-scouting units...
Not complaining, but I'm getting jealous. I want some of these mythical +3 attack heroes. :lol:
I recall there was at least one thread with a formula.

I might be wrong but I think I recall your units are more likely to get +1 heroes if your enemies are very suppressed or weak.

I think you have higher chances of +2 and +3 heroes when the damage created by your unit is higher.

Anyone knows for sure?
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http://www.slitherine.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=86481

Panzerpimp
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by Panzerpimp » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:37 pm

PeteMitchell wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:22 pm
I recall there was at least one thread with a formula.
I only know of this thread:

viewtopic.php?t=26075

(Rudankort gives a simple formula for a dice roll, I don't know about any other describing more complicated rules... :| )
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huckc
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by huckc » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:26 pm

Panzerpimp wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:37 pm
PeteMitchell wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:22 pm
I recall there was at least one thread with a formula.
I only know of this thread:

viewtopic.php?t=26075

(Rudankort gives a simple formula for a dice roll, I don't know about any other describing more complicated rules... :| )
Rudankort wrote:The game rolls 1...7 and then for 1...4 it gives you +1 bonus, for 5...6 you get +2 bonus and for 7 +3 bonus. So +3 is rare and +4 should never happen.
Straight from the horse's mouth...and well dang this whole time I thought each were equally likely :shock:

PeteMitchell
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by PeteMitchell » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:08 am

Panzerpimp wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:37 pm
PeteMitchell wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:22 pm
I recall there was at least one thread with a formula.
I only know of this thread:

viewtopic.php?t=26075

(Rudankort gives a simple formula for a dice roll, I don't know about any other describing more complicated rules... :| )
It's this one and the one linked in there:
viewtopic.php?t=31739

Don't have the answer to the suppression yet though...
Comprehensive Battlefield Europe AAR:
http://www.slitherine.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=86481

TSPC37730
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by TSPC37730 » Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:38 pm

AFAIK there is no pattern.

That said, I always seem to get a +1A or +1D hero first any time I start a new campaign. Meh. :|
Last edited by TSPC37730 on Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.

captainjack
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by captainjack » Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:11 pm

I hadn't seen the link for likelihood of getting a hero. Thanks for posting that.
when you get a hero, there's five types of hero (spotting, initiative, move, attack, defence). Initiative is replaced by range for AA and artillery so range and ini will each be a bit less common than the other 4. (I'm not quire sure, but it might be you get range when you have range >0 to start with rather than by class). So more or less 1 in 5 chance of each type of hero.
At 1 in 5 odds, a run of even 4 or 5 of the same type of hero is in the region of 1:1,000 to 1 in 5,000 likelihood, so a bit unusual, but nothing too extreme. A run of 4 or 5 range or ini heroes would be less common, but still not quite enough to head to the lotto shop.
A and D then have a chance for +1 (4/7), +2 (2/7) +3 (1/7), so most will be +1A or +1D. Even than a run of 2 or 3 +3 is in the 1 in a few thousands, so you should see a few runs, but 4 or 5 in a row would be getting pretty rare, though given the number of plays there should be a few.
That's all my stats abilities used up for the moment

MaxDoge
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by MaxDoge » Mon Sep 21, 2020 3:18 am

captainjack wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 11:11 pm
A and D then have a chance for +1 (4/7), +2 (2/7) +3 (1/7), so most will be +1A or +1D. Even than a run of 2 or 3 +3 is in the 1 in a few thousands, so you should see a few runs, but 4 or 5 in a row would be getting pretty rare, though given the number of plays there should be a few.
Seen this before but has it been confirmed by devs? Because it doesn't feel right, I get +2 or +3 just as often as +1.

captainjack
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by captainjack » Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:09 am

Hi MaxDoge, Huckc's post quotes Rudankort on the ratio of +1/2/3 heroes and you can't get more authoritative than that.
Interestingly, +1s are only a bit more likely than something better, (+2 or more) and it would be quite likely that you notice the +2 +3 more than +1s, so even a standard distribution miģht look top-heavy. Or maybe you are just having a better than average run.
Don't forget that a truly random result will very rarely match the official distribution unless you start averaging across a lot of tests (10s or 100s) so odd results are normal.
My brain hurts now, so I'll stop there!

MaxDoge
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Re: Heroes pattern?

Post by MaxDoge » Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:31 am

captainjack wrote:
Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:09 am
My brain hurts now, so I'll stop there!
Haha, thought it was just mine!

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