Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

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StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

My prior post ignores the obvious. Using an average winning score as the basis of point allocation punishes players who are above average and rewards below average players. Initially there seems to be a straightforward way to correct for this. At the end of each round completed game records are processed and pool percentage can be calculated for the players who finished games, pool % = (player's points) / (player's points + opponent points), the average of all pool% is then calculated, next a player's "strength factor" is calculated which just compares their pool%/average pool%. A player with a strength rating over 1 performed better than the average player, below one means below average. Over the course of the tournament each time a player is in a complete match this "strength factor" is updated. Every time it is updated all prior partial and no-show matches are rescored to more accurately reflect what the player should have been awarded for a no-show or partial-show based on how much better or worse than average they have been in complete matches.

There is an unresolved problem with THIS method though because of the Swiss tournament structure. Above average player's start playing above average players, increasingly more so as the tournament progresses. A very good player, playing against slightly better players is likely to get a "strength factor" below average not because he is a subpar player but because his opponents are so skilled. It would be unjust to give him below average proxy scores for incomplete matches. Any suggestions??
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StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

Current Top Ten players based solely on completed match analysis:

1. Adel77
2. Lueh*
3. Ted1710*
4. kleko11
5. tagedieb34
6. Dardalon
7. FritzchenEK-I
8. paulwalvoord
9. Dzidek
10. Trepko

??. StuG_Tutor**

* data indicates player failed to finish in round 2, one of these I am aware was "in protest" to non-sensical scoring.
** none of StuG_Tutor's opponents have finished a game or match.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" --George E.P. Box
bendtheknee
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by bendtheknee »

Edmon wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:27 pm
And there is very little we can do about that.
it is so bad to end a phase of communication with players with this kind of sentences ...

- a surrender option
- a timer as in chess (with different option of use)

first two solutions found quickly and I am sure that many good ideas can appear on the forum and implemented all as quickly

thank you Edmond for participating in this subject, since the start of the tournament, we still have the impression of talking for nothing (two turns to change the aberrant rules....)
bubu13
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Edmon »

bendtheknee wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:05 am
Edmon wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:27 pm
And there is very little we can do about that.
it is so bad to end a phase of communication with players with this kind of sentences ...

- a surrender option
- a timer as in chess (with different option of use)

first two solutions found quickly and I am sure that many good ideas can appear on the forum and implemented all as quickly

thank you Edmond for participating in this subject, since the start of the tournament, we still have the impression of talking for nothing (two turns to change the aberrant rules....)
There is already a timer, in that if the game is left alone the player that played will be awarded victory and all VP points for all rounds (this was not true for round 1 or 2 but was something we changed and was true of round 3, which is why round 3 was generally higher scoring).

So your quick suggestion is already implemented...

Likewise, AFK players who have missed a game against a live player will never have enough points to be paired against another live player...

So while they are still on the list, they have de facto been removed from the tournament...

This is what I mean when I say, the main complaint is against players who decide to stop playing "now" where "now" is whatever round we're currently in. We don't have a solution to that issue, if they played the previous rounds without problem, we can't know they aren't going to play "now".
Lifever
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Lifever »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:03 am Current Top Ten players based solely on completed match analysis:

1. Adel77
2. Lueh*
3. Ted1710*
4. kleko11
5. tagedieb34
6. Dardalon
7. FritzchenEK-I
8. paulwalvoord
9. Dzidek
10. Trepko

??. StuG_Tutor**

* data indicates player failed to finish in round 2, one of these I am aware was "in protest" to non-sensical scoring.
** none of StuG_Tutor's opponents have finished a game or match.
Impressive.
You put up a list that is close to my "instinct" list on how the current top ten list would look if scoring would be transparent and fair from the start.

Also impressive that you still endure after all that misery.

The real question in all of this scoring madness: How good is kleko11?
Should we invite him to a sparring session on the tippy top of the mountain to find out?
Will there be a restart of this tournament if he gets beaten darkblueink?

Oh - you get that quitter next round. Good luck on playing a game to the finish 2022.
PaganCyC
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by PaganCyC »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:03 am Current Top Ten players based solely on completed match analysis:
...
The scoreboard does NOT accurately indicate whether a game was played to completion. I know this because my 3rd round game as Soviets only got as far as turn 10, yet is not marked as timed out.
StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

Edmon wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:22 am There is already a timer, in that if the game is left alone the player that played will be awarded victory and all VP points for all rounds (this was not true for round 1 or 2 but was something we changed and was true of round 3, which is why round 3 was generally higher scoring).
This isn't accurate. The data indicates round three had 12 matches in which a participant quit part way through. The average "winner's" score in those matches was 1664 points. The average winning score in completed games was 2514 points. The higher scores in round three had nothing to do with partial games they were driven by the 500 additional points introduced into the scoring system for achieving victory conditions.*

The programmers may think they have correctly changed the system, but since a fixed pool of 2000 points is still being split between two players in partial games, all they have probably achieved is developing more sophisticated ways of splitting a too small pot. The pot's too small. It's that simple.
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StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

PaganCyC wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 1:36 pm The scoreboard does NOT accurately indicate whether a game was played to completion. I know this because my 3rd round game as Soviets only got as far as turn 10, yet is not marked as timed out.
This is unfortunate news. An analysis is only as good as the accuracy of its data. If the posted match results aren't accurate with respect to whether the matched timed out things get a lot more difficult. I know my three matches timed out and it was accurately reflected. Was there anything strange about how it timed out in your match? Did the losing player get a last turn in that you weren't able to respond to?

Did anyone else have this problem where the matched timed out and a "T" wasn't posted in the results?
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" --George E.P. Box
PaganCyC
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by PaganCyC »

I suspect that a minimum amount of time has to have passed since the last turn for it to show a "T". Which is reasonable since otherwise an unscrupulous player could wait until the last moment to do a turn and get a reward for the other player not having played most recently.

BTW, I am not blaming my opponent for the game not being finished, I was on vacation for the first 8 days of this round.
Dzidek
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Dzidek »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:16 pm This is unfortunate news. An analysis is only as good as the accuracy of its data. If the posted match results aren't accurate with respect to whether the matched timed out things get a lot more difficult. I know my three matches timed out and it was accurately reflected. Was there anything strange about how it timed out in your match? Did the losing player get a last turn in that you weren't able to respond to?

Did anyone else have this problem where the matched timed out and a "T" wasn't posted in the results?
Of course. My match in the third round. The opponent stopped playing at the same moment, but as a defender he pulled to turn 11, and as an attacker to turn 6. In the results he has T as an attacker and haven't T as a defender, so I suspect that the recapture of points only applies to matches not completed by the turn X (Probably X <10). I don't even want to comment on it.

In the first round, I had a similar case.
StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

Dzidek wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:43 pm
StuG_Tutor wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 3:16 pm Did anyone else have this problem where the matched timed out and a "T" wasn't posted in the results?
Of course. My match in the third round. The opponent stopped playing at the same moment, but as a defender he pulled to turn 11, and as an attacker to turn 6. In the results he has T as an attacker and haven't T as a defender, so I suspect that the recapture of points only applies to matches not completed by the turn X (Probably X <10). I don't even want to comment on it.

In the first round, I had a similar case.
O.K. the data they posted indicates your opponent, runyan99, bailed on game 2 of round 3, and both games in round 2 were quit by your opponent, Commando43.

The scoring system assigned a total point value of 1000 (2000 pts. / 2) to that game and gave you 95.5% of the 1000.
At the very least if they had used half of the actual average points per match for completed round 3 games you should have received 1518 points for the unfinished game. And a score of 1766 for the match rather than the 1203 you got.

That score of 1518 for a single game in round three is right at the 90th percentile for completed games that round. Not a perfect adjustment by any means but I think that gets you closer to a sensible valuation of the incomplete games.

Likewise, your corrected score for round 2 should be 1386 + 1034 = 2420.

Currently, it is mathematically impossible for a player to get an average winning score if their opponent leaves no matter how much they are dominating the game.

The fix is simple:

Round 1: No-show games are worth 1946 points, partial games use a pool of 3180 points to divvy up between the players.

Round 2: No-show games are worth 1771 points, partial games use a pool of 2794 points to divvy up between the players.

Round 3: No-show games are worth 2504 points, partial games use a pool of 3696 points to divvy up between the players.
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Dzidek
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Dzidek »

As if not counting, this tournament cannot be brought back to justice. (bad pairings).

I don't care anymore, now I'm just curious how low I will drop in the table.

For me, unfinished matches should be judged by the judges from Slitherine and they would decide on the addition of points for control points and a possible victory.

In the 3rd round, as an attacker, I had one checkpoint to capture in the 12th round, a success of 100%. I don't understand what the problem is to watch this match, confirm my words and add the missing points, but it's probably too much work.

Aside from assurances that Slitherine is discussing our problems, I don't see any concrete action, and we already have round four on the threshold (apart from fixing the problem of winning early as attacker, of course).
StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

The algorithm they use to split points--e.g. 82% goes to winner and 18% to loser based on partial results is probably pretty decent. They gave you 95.5% of the point pool in that single game--it clearly indicates they felt you were dominating. They are simply not applying their factor to the proper base. By applying their factor to an already average winner point estimate (2000) they are double discounting players in partial matches.
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Dzidek
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Dzidek »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:12 pm The algorithm they use to split points--e.g. 82% goes to winner and 18% to loser based on partial results is probably pretty decent. They gave you 95.5% of the point pool in that single game--it clearly indicates they felt you were dominating. They are simply not applying their factor to the proper base. By applying their factor to an already average winner point estimate (2000) they are double discounting players in partial matches.
This is what I got as a defender and I haven't big problem with it.
As an attacker I didn't get anything even though I had the win in my pocket.
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

Dzidek wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:34 pm This is what I got as a defender and I haven't big problem with it.
As an attacker I didn't get anything even though I had the win in my pocket.
I guess I'm a little confused by what they posted then:

Round 3.....Game 1...Game 2......Total
Dzidek.........248.......955...........1203
runyan99......976........45 T..........1021

This looks to me as though your Game as the attacker was Game 2. Game 2 is the one they scored by splitting the average assumed single game winner score of 1000 pts between the two of you. You received 95.5% of the assumed points, but you should have received 1518 pts. based on average results for the round.
It looks as though Game 1 was the one with you defending. Since it doesn't add up to 1000 pts. "something else" happened, if it was also an unfinished game, they've chosen to score it in a non-transparent manner. In that case I can't do much to suggest corrections if warranted--I simply don't have access to that data.
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StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

P.S. I could be wrong about the attacker/defender assumption. If the defender controls most VH hexes for the majority of the game and no winning bonus of 500 pts. is awarded I guess the defender would have the higher point score ???? It's not like I actually got to play this scenario :)
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Dzidek
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by Dzidek »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 4:44 am I guess I'm a little confused by what they posted then:

Round 3.....Game 1...Game 2......Total
Dzidek.........248.......955...........1203
runyan99......976........45 T..........1021

This looks to me as though your Game as the attacker was Game 2.
Game 1 - I as attacker.
Game II - I as defender.
Before final points counting I have as defender about 6** points. It look that for this game i received only additional 300.
I don't have problrm with game 2 becouse I'm not sure if I would defend myself and points near base value as for full playes abscence is ok for me.
However, I believe that in game 1 I was treated unfairly and lost near 900 points. And this applies to all players who have had a similar situation.

Without individual evaluation of unfinished matches by referees, this system will be extremely unfair and that's it.
PaganCyC
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by PaganCyC »

StuG_Tutor wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:05 am ...
It's not like I actually got to play this scenario :)
Here you go:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10-t-AD ... sp=sharing

It is as close to the Round 3 map/setup as I could get from my notes. I had a few questions I posted here and got no response to:
viewtopic.php?f=597&t=107683

If I get useful feedback I will update it and re-release without the silly name.
StuG_Tutor
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by StuG_Tutor »

Dzidek wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:59 am Game 1 - I as attacker.
Game II - I as defender.
Before final points counting I have as defender about 6** points. It look that for this game i received only additional 300.
I don't have problrm with game 2 becouse I'm not sure if I would defend myself and points near base value as for full playes abscence is ok for me.
However, I believe that in game 1 I was treated unfairly and lost near 900 points. And this applies to all players who have had a similar situation.

Without individual evaluation of unfinished matches by referees, this system will be extremely unfair and that's it.
Thanks for the clarification.

The bottom line is that Slitherine is great at producing excellent wargames which we all love. And they are a business. They have profit margins, sales targets, return on equity goals and limited resources. Projects are proposed, cost benefit analyses are done and many, many great ideas are shelved...

In writing this I decided to get some facts about Slitherine and their huge cynical Corporate cultural and obscene profits. I wanted to show how they would never "go for" a panel of judges because it was unprofitable and didn't fit their return on equity targets...

And I was humbled. I imagined Slitherine and company as a huge enterprise with big expense accounts and enough money to hire a dozen programmers to meet our demands if they only deemed it sufficiently profitable. They are not. The most recent data I could quickly find, 2019, indicated 30 employees--providing over 200 games across eleven different platforms. I'm glad I looked it up. It has completely corrected my attitude. They didn't make a ton of money--2019 earnings BEFORE taxes, depreciation etc... was around 1400 GBP per employee. My attitude went from irritation to respect and then to awe and gratitude. The fat cat shareholders I expected to find turned out to be three guys John, Iain and Phil. John is Iain's dad, and they started the company about twenty years ago--they love wargames and have a passion for realistic simulation wargames--like my father and I had. They both work in the Finance and Accounting capacity at Slitherine. I'm sure they both wish they had more time to play their games--or enter this tournament. And they aren't a corporation--at least not in the sense that word is used in my country--they are a private company, a "mom and pop" enterprise. That's good news to those of us with a passion for realistic wargaming. They don't have to sell out to anyone or compromise their vision to meet shareholder expectations--they are the shareholders, just a couple wargamers like us.
I have been an ignorant, spoiled brat. And I apologize to Edmon and all the hard-working wargame lovers at Slitherine. irl, before I switched careers, I was a corporate executive and officer for a multi-national mega corporation. I've projected my experiences with that culture onto Slitherine by default. From the tone of a lot of my peers on this forum I know I'm not the only one who has viewed Slitherine's response to our criticism through the cynical lens of a projected Corporate stereotype. But we were wrong to. I've worked for the "Evil Soulless Corporate Empire" which answers only to shareholder's incessant demand for profit and this ain't it guys. Slitherine is an enterprise based on love. Love of the wargame and a commitment to providing others with access to great games. That's the only way you can explain thirty people (hopefully a bit more now) achieving what they have for our benefit. It's a shame they have to have a marketing brand name. "Slitherine" let's us forget who they really are and depersonalize their efforts--the Cobham Wargamer's Club would have been better IMHO. We are all on the same side guys. The tournament was and still is a great idea. Did the planners' reach exceed their grasp? Yes, a bit, for now--but we all thought it was a great idea or we wouldn't be involved in the discussion. So maybe 2021 WC is a Beta "year," for those of you who get to play opponents it's still fun, are we finding ways to improve it? Yes. Are they "listening"? Emphatically, "Yes!" Once we take into account the reality of how few people are managing such a huge workload and appreciate that most of our peers in the Cobham Wargamer's Club probably haven't seen a weekend or had an evening off for months their responsiveness has been truly impressive. A couple days ago I made a recommendation for adopting an end of round algorithm to fairly assess unfinished games to a devoted Panzer Corps 2 staff with idle programmer capacity--there is no Panzer Corps 2 staff or idle programmer capacity--in reality I was probably making the request to an overworked, overstressed programmer/wargamer who drinks way too much coffee and the request amounted to asking him or her to go completely without sleep for several nights while trying to fit the new demand in with his or her work on ten or twenty other pressing projects...and still crank out Panzer Corps 2 Pacific ASAP.
The Cobham Wargamer's Club is doing us a great service. They are the nexus of our community, and we should be asking how we can help them and the community.
  • 1. Provide respectful, constructive feedback on the tournament
    • Stay objective and focus on the facts and ideas being discussed--never the people who have them.
      Regard Slitherine as a person (above) sounds weird but when we attack "Slitherine" what we are really attacking are the people there--our friends and fellow wargamers.
      Be patient with responses, remembering we are a single game which the 30ish people at the Cobhom Wargamer's Club are trying to help along with 200 other game communities.
      Refrain from making demands.
    2. Don't quit the tournament, don't bail in a match if you are losing--finish your games.
    3. Serve the community by creating new multi-player maps, scenarios and campaigns.
    • If you don't know how learn or ask others on the forums.
      If you do know how help those who don't by answering questions on the forums.
      If you are an experienced modder, consider putting together guides or "How to.." You Tube videos--consider working with a novice modder for constructive feedback, they will help you remember what you once didn't know and make the enterprise so
      much better for it.
    4. It's not about you, me or them--it's about us, the Panzer Corps 2 wargamer community and our overtaxed service center at the Cobhom Wargamer's Club.
My sincerest apologies to the Cobhom Wargamer's Club--I had no Idea. And THANK YOU!
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" --George E.P. Box
rth
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Re: Panzer Corps 2 - World Championship Round 3 Update

Post by rth »

Ich finde die Beiträge von Trepko sehr gut, er hat meiner Meinung nach genau den Kern der Sache getroffen. Natürlich macht es mehr Spaß zu gewinnen, aber auch bei einer sich abzeichnenden Niederlage ist es eine Frage der persönlichen Integrität und Fairness dem Gewinner nichts zu schenken.
Ich könnte auch jammern über meine Dummheit, oder das ich kein Glück hatte bei der Auslosung (1. Spiel kein Gegner, 2. Spiel klar gewonnen aber zu schnell alles erobert, 3. Spiel keine Chance gegen einen sehr guten Spieler, der das Spiel und seine Geheimnisse viel viel besser kannte als ich selbst) und ja es kostet Überwindung bei Misserfolgen immer weiter zu machen und seinem Gegner den Erfolg zu gönnen, ich bin mir sicher das es meinem 3. Gegner Spaß gemacht hat gegen mich zu spielen und zu gewinnen, warum sollte das Erfolgserlebnis jemanden gestohlen werden ...... durch frühzeitigen Abbruch !!!
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