Scotland referendum

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jdm
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Scotland referendum

Post by jdm » Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:23 am

Firstly I want to make it clear that I am a Scot and every bit as patriotic as the next man.
However, I am deeply concerned that by voting "Yes" Scotland Is sleepwalking into an unredeemable catastrophe. The prospect of splitting our Nation in two has hugely detrimental and financial consequences, for both a separate Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

So I hope that all of my friends and family North of the Border will take a few moments to read this in the spirit that it is intended and please feel free to pass this to any other current residents of Scotland who might be interested in my thoughts.

Despite how the "yes" campaign argues it, by leaving the UK, Scotland will have to apply for membership of the EU, there will be no automatic entry, and nations like Spain with their own separatist issues may well refuse to accept Scotland. This would also require Scotland to sign up to the Euro and grant Brussels jurisdiction over many issues, including but not limited to the law, immigration and border controls.

Even if Scotland wants to hold onto the Pound, The Bank of England has made it perfectly clear that just to begin discussions, supposing this was even on the table which it currently is not, a Scottish Central Bank would be required to hold reserves in excess of an independent Scotland's entire GDP. The issue of currency and banking is the bleakest or perhaps the most disingenuous piece of the independence argument.

Further the threat of withholding its share of the National Debt, if demands are not met, is frankly ludicrous and would wreck Scotland's reputation and financial standing Worldwide. This should not be underestimated, as it would destroy an independent Scotland's credit ratings and ability to borrow, as the rest of the banking world not disregard these liabilities.

In purely practical terms to unravel and recreate the institutional ties that currently bind the UK, for example the NHS or the BBC, amongst many others would be far more complicated than anyone in the "yes" campaign seems yet to have acknowledged. In addition it will be necessary to renegotiate literally thousands of international treaties and agreements covering everything from the UN, with its myriad of Departments and specialist areas. Treaties, like for example, governing Aviation, Shipping, Border Controls and a whole plethora of other other Treaties and Agreements. These would likely take years of renegotiations and certainly not the 18 months which the "Yes" campaigners would have us believe. In the meantime, would for example, airlines be willing or even able to fly through Scottish airspace.

Where will the thousands of experienced civil servants come from to carry out all of this? Who will train them? What will all this cost? The economy of scale will be lost and all of these services and departments will require to be duplicated and most importantly an Independent Scotland with a population of around one twelfth of the UK will have running costs at the same or near the same level that the combined UK now has. The economies of scale will be lost. Further the additional costs in setting up this new bureaucracy are either incalculable, or have been concealed from us. The "White Paper" lacks any detail on how any of this would be achieved.

A further and similar issue is the location, creation and staffing of Embassies in over 190 countries around the world. This would be a complete duplication of costs and services already fully funded in a combined UK and again the entire costs would require to be funded from the new and much smaller Scottish exchequer. Mirror all of this in Education, Health Services, Welfare, Pensions, Borders & Immigration, Public Spending & Investment, etc, etc, all to be wholly funded by an independent Scotland, one twelfth the size of the combined UK. Will our citizens expect or accept lower standards, of course not, they will demand at least as good as we now have, but then we are told don't worry, we have oil, so it's all sorted.

How will a Scottish, Army, Navy and Airforce be created and funded? How will the Ships, Aircraft and equipment be funded? Where will the money come from to pay for this? How will alliances be formed and who with, certainly not NATO, as the "Yes" campaign has already declared its intentions in respect of a nuclear deterrent, so NATO will not be an option. Also in the current state of international tensions, what is the plan for security and intelligence services? What has Scotland got to trade in security dealings with other nations and how will these very specialist services be created? Again the initial setup costs in establishing all of this are either incalculable or have been concealed from us or simply not considered. How long will it take to establish all of this? In the mean time, in an increasingly dangerous world, Scotland will be left exposed

The Plethero of Banking and commercial interests now urging caution are not some Whitehall conspiracy, just like me and about half of the current residents of Scotland they can see the difficulties in all of this, their warnings are heart felt and genuine.

Taxation at present levels cannot possibly hope to fund all of this, so where and how will a country with no independent currency borrow the money to manage these many issues. The recent failure of the Euro and the position of countries such as Greece and Spain are not at all dissimilar to the position that Scotland could easily be faced with. Their problems are a fair indicator of the likely outcome with ancillary problems, like unemployment levels in excess of 25% and the failure of failed banks to pay out.

So what is the solution, vote with your head not patriotic fervour, you will still be a Scot and despite a NO vote, without doubt there will be significant changes to the existing governance of Scotland, that is now beyond doubt.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by BiteNibbleChomp » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:10 am

I'm not Scottish, and in fact won't be affected by it at all, but I still have something to say about this:

"Why fix something that ain't broken"

Scotland has been united with England (and the rest of the former Empire) since 1707, and as a result has grown considerably (economically, not militarily). Do all you 'yes' voters really want to possibly return to the far weaker power of the Middle Ages, or do you want to stay powerful?

- BNC
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by stockwellpete » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:44 am

Vote "Yes", shut down the Trident base at Faslane and develop the oil reserves on the west coast. :D

http://www.sundaypost.com/news-views/sc ... w-1.526669

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by IainMcNeil » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:48 am

I'm half Scottish and half English, but 100% British and the idea of an independent Scotland really saddens me. Salmond is a great politician but he has used the Scots patriotism for his own ends to create his place in history as the new king of Scotland and he's doing it at any price. He doesn't really know or care if Scotland will be better off after independence but it will be his Scotland with him in charge. All he wants is his place in the history books.

Nobody knows what is going to happens in the long term. In the short term it looks pretty clear there will be significant issues and there is massive uncertainty. There is nothing business and investors hate more than uncertainty and so the UK is haemorrhaging investment at the moment and if there is a Yes vote the uncertainty goes up and it will get worse.

If you are in any doubt about whether independence is a bad idea you should say "no". A "yes" can never be undone, but a "no" can always be reviewed. If you listen to Salmond he would have you believe this is the only chance Scotland will ever have to be independent. However this is completely untrue. What he means is this is HIS only chance to lead an independent Scotland.

I really hate politicians.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by BiteNibbleChomp » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:58 am

IainMcNeil wrote:I'm half Scottish and half English, but 100% British and the idea of an independent Scotland really saddens me. Salmond is a great politician but he has used the Scots patriotism for his own ends to create his place in history as the new king of Scotland and he's doing it at any price. He doesn't really know or care if Scotland will be better off after independence but it will be his Scotland with him in charge. All he wants is his place in the history books.

Nobody knows what is going to happens in the long term. In the short term it looks pretty clear there will be significant issues and there is massive uncertainty. There is nothing business and investors hate more than uncertainty and so the UK is haemorrhaging investment at the moment and if there is a Yes vote the uncertainty goes up and it will get worse.

If you are in any doubt about whether independence is a bad idea you should say "no". A "yes" can never be undone, but a "no" can always be reviewed. If you listen to Salmond he would have you believe this is the only chance Scotland will ever have to be independent. However this is completely untrue. What he means is this is HIS only chance to lead an independent Scotland.

I really hate politicians.
He won't even gain any real position in history books anyway. I've never heard of the first leader of independent Norway. Libya. Canada even.

In order to gain this dream of being listed in the "World History Encyclopedia 2050", he will have to actually have to do something that people outside of the country (like me) are going to care about, such as sending a man to Mars or starting a new world trade company.

- BNC
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by Confusedesh » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:52 am

jdm wrote:Firstly I want to make it clear that I am a Scot and every bit as patriotic as the next man.
However, I am deeply concerned that by voting "Yes" Scotland Is sleepwalking into an unredeemable catastrophe. The prospect of splitting our Nation in two has hugely detrimental and financial consequences, for both a separate Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom.

So I hope that all of my friends and family North of the Border will take a few moments to read this in the spirit that it is intended and please feel free to pass this to any other current residents of Scotland who might be interested in my thoughts.

Despite how the "yes" campaign argues it, by leaving the UK, Scotland will have to apply for membership of the EU, there will be no automatic entry, and nations like Spain with their own separatist issues may well refuse to accept Scotland. This would also require Scotland to sign up to the Euro and grant Brussels jurisdiction over many issues, including but not limited to the law, immigration and border controls.

Even if Scotland wants to hold onto the Pound, The Bank of England has made it perfectly clear that just to begin discussions, supposing this was even on the table which it currently is not, a Scottish Central Bank would be required to hold reserves in excess of an independent Scotland's entire GDP. The issue of currency and banking is the bleakest or perhaps the most disingenuous piece of the independence argument.

Further the threat of withholding its share of the National Debt, if demands are not met, is frankly ludicrous and would wreck Scotland's reputation and financial standing Worldwide. This should not be underestimated, as it would destroy an independent Scotland's credit ratings and ability to borrow, as the rest of the banking world not disregard these liabilities.

In purely practical terms to unravel and recreate the institutional ties that currently bind the UK, for example the NHS or the BBC, amongst many others would be far more complicated than anyone in the "yes" campaign seems yet to have acknowledged. In addition it will be necessary to renegotiate literally thousands of international treaties and agreements covering everything from the UN, with its myriad of Departments and specialist areas. Treaties, like for example, governing Aviation, Shipping, Border Controls and a whole plethora of other other Treaties and Agreements. These would likely take years of renegotiations and certainly not the 18 months which the "Yes" campaigners would have us believe. In the meantime, would for example, airlines be willing or even able to fly through Scottish airspace.

Where will the thousands of experienced civil servants come from to carry out all of this? Who will train them? What will all this cost? The economy of scale will be lost and all of these services and departments will require to be duplicated and most importantly an Independent Scotland with a population of around one twelfth of the UK will have running costs at the same or near the same level that the combined UK now has. The economies of scale will be lost. Further the additional costs in setting up this new bureaucracy are either incalculable, or have been concealed from us. The "White Paper" lacks any detail on how any of this would be achieved.

A further and similar issue is the location, creation and staffing of Embassies in over 190 countries around the world. This would be a complete duplication of costs and services already fully funded in a combined UK and again the entire costs would require to be funded from the new and much smaller Scottish exchequer. Mirror all of this in Education, Health Services, Welfare, Pensions, Borders & Immigration, Public Spending & Investment, etc, etc, all to be wholly funded by an independent Scotland, one twelfth the size of the combined UK. Will our citizens expect or accept lower standards, of course not, they will demand at least as good as we now have, but then we are told don't worry, we have oil, so it's all sorted.

How will a Scottish, Army, Navy and Airforce be created and funded? How will the Ships, Aircraft and equipment be funded? Where will the money come from to pay for this? How will alliances be formed and who with, certainly not NATO, as the "Yes" campaign has already declared its intentions in respect of a nuclear deterrent, so NATO will not be an option. Also in the current state of international tensions, what is the plan for security and intelligence services? What has Scotland got to trade in security dealings with other nations and how will these very specialist services be created? Again the initial setup costs in establishing all of this are either incalculable or have been concealed from us or simply not considered. How long will it take to establish all of this? In the mean time, in an increasingly dangerous world, Scotland will be left exposed

The Plethero of Banking and commercial interests now urging caution are not some Whitehall conspiracy, just like me and about half of the current residents of Scotland they can see the difficulties in all of this, their warnings are heart felt and genuine.

Taxation at present levels cannot possibly hope to fund all of this, so where and how will a country with no independent currency borrow the money to manage these many issues. The recent failure of the Euro and the position of countries such as Greece and Spain are not at all dissimilar to the position that Scotland could easily be faced with. Their problems are a fair indicator of the likely outcome with ancillary problems, like unemployment levels in excess of 25% and the failure of failed banks to pay out.

So what is the solution, vote with your head not patriotic fervour, you will still be a Scot and despite a NO vote, without doubt there will be significant changes to the existing governance of Scotland, that is now beyond doubt.

Not going to deal with your points which may or may not be correct because predictions of doom rarely if ever turn out the way people first predicted they would and generally solutions are always found to deal with problems especially since it is in the interest of both parties to find a solution.

So do you vote with your head or your heart?

Cameron is telling the people of Scotland to vote with their heads and not their hearts but is Cameron so pragmatic that his own heart is not a factor in why he wants people to vote a certain way?

I would suggest that most people in most situations vote with their hearts and then create arguments to rationalise that position, is there ever a right decision to be made about the future of anything?

The bottom line is you don’t know, the UK could leave the EU 5 years from now do the Scottish people want that? Is a vote NO today a Vote YES tomorrow on leaving the EU the economic consequences of which could be far greater then just leaving the UK. Ironically parties like the UKIP will be using the same arguments that the Scottish independents are using now.

So I say vote with your heart because that is what you want.

vexillia

Re: Scotland referendum

Post by vexillia » Tue Sep 16, 2014 10:39 am

You should always vote for what you want and be prepared to live with the consequences whatever they maybe.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by hs1611 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:13 am

jdm wrote:an Independent Scotland with a population of around one twelfth of the UK
For now, but how many would choose to retain British, instead of Scottish, nationality?
And yes, Spain would probably VETO your entry into the EU, or risk Catalunha and the Basques trying something similar.
By all means, you should ne independent in eRepublik, but in real life?
I do believe that would be a bad mistake.
But then again it's your mistake to make, or not make, not mine. So what do I know?
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by BiteNibbleChomp » Tue Sep 16, 2014 12:44 pm

hs1611 wrote:
BiteNibbleChomp
Send out your Stormtroopers!!
I do agree. A 100k-strong No vote should tip the balance considerably!

- BNC
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by MatteoPasi » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:04 pm

Looking the thing from far away there aren't war between Scotland and England since 1700, I can't remember a peace so enduring before (the same for European Union).
:)

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by AlanCutner » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:06 pm

I do live in Scotland and have a vote in the referendum. I will be voting 'no' partly for the reasons given by JD (surprisingly JD we agree for once!). However I absolutely understand the reasons many others will be voting 'yes'.

For 'yes' voters its not necessarily a matter of logic. Its largely sentiment and pride. But also reaction to an English-centric UK where Scots and Scotland are marginalised in very many, albeit often small ways, but in ways that grate and build up over time. Even as an English immigrant I get annoyed by some of the unintended discrimination. And none of this is to suggest the 'yes' campaign has been anti-English - it absolutely has not.

Its going to be a close vote, not helped by an inept campaign by the better together group, especially in the last couple of weeks. And although I hope the result is 'no', I sense that the 'yes's' have it.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by avisnigra67 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:38 pm

This is a very interesting (an unexpected to be found in this kind of forums, at least for me) debate.
I'm not scottish nor english, but spaniard, born in Catalonia and living for ten years in Madrid. As you could see, I was interested in this issue...

After reading all the above arguments, I can find some similar circunstances and of course many differences related to what is happening in my country... but there's one thing I think is very comparable: The desire of independence it's not a matter of reason, it's above all, a matter of feelings of many people. That's the way how most of the world nations came into life in the past. So, maybe I can share most of the economic arguments exposed and the doubts and uncertainty that would generate the independence of Scotland and/or Catalonia; but only one thing is sure for now: Whatever would happen, World will keep on turning, and humans will adapt to it...
Regards

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by maximvs » Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:59 pm

Very well put Alan, it's a pity your comments can't be more widely circulated.

Although I'm English, along with many others I have given the matter a lot of thought. What I can predict is that if there is a 'no' vote there's a lot of money to be made by somebody.

In the transport sector alone, the Scots will urgently need to fund:
5 million new driving licenses, 5 million Vehicle Registration documents, 4 million MOT (or whatever they will be called) documents, 5 million tax disks, 10 million replacement vehicle registration plates (hard luck if you happened to have a UK cherished plate) ...
Not to mention that they will have to create their own version of the DVLC from scratch to service the requirements ...

Moving on to the general population, they will suddenly need 5 million new passports, OAPs will need 3 million new bus passes ... the more you think about it the worse the whole thing sounds!

It's such a huge undertaking that it will take years of taxpayer's money just to carry on with what everyone thinks of as 'normal'.

I do hope they think about it seriously before they decide.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by hedning » Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:48 pm

I want to excuse myself before I start, I am not Scottish - Swedish actually.

I do not think we need more minor regions. More minor regions require more administration. Even though Scotland does not want to join the EU you still want to be able to travel to UK easily and THAT WILL COST. Administration administration and more administration, stick to what it is. Something else that costs shitloads is when you dont get casino bonus...!
Last edited by hedning on Thu Sep 18, 2014 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by ronin23 » Tue Sep 16, 2014 7:44 pm

vexillia wrote:You should always vote for what you want and be prepared to live with the consequences whatever they maybe.
Amen!

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by nikivdd » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:28 pm

The Scottish people have the right to decide their own destiny in Europe and the whole world. If they vote yes, there will be consequences, good and bad but look at so many other nations that were dissolved during the last 25 years. Are things so bad now in Czech Republic, Slovakia, Croatia, Slovenia,...? Look at the fine examples of small thriving economies like Finland, Norway and Switzerland. Scotland as an independent nation has a future whether they like it in Westminster or not.
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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by stockwellpete » Tue Sep 16, 2014 8:44 pm

Anyway, a "yes" vote should present a great business opportunity for Slitherine - immediately get Iain and one of his teams working on a new strategy game called "Reivers" and we can hold Anglo-Scottish tournaments to see who is best at stealing each others sheep! :lol:

Tommy Sheridan on fine form here . . .

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by spotteddog » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:03 pm

I am a Scot and want to thank all my wargaming buddies for their help in setting out the issues I need to consider before going to the polling station on Thursday :D

It seems to me that there is a potentially a lot to lose and a lot to gain. JD has pointed out the risks as he sees them and that's a fair shout. BUT throughout the recent good times Scotland has endured unacceptable poverty, ill heath, worklessness and hopelessness (the rest of the UK too). I don't think that will ever change as long as we are part of UK plc. A nation of 5m does have at least the chance to tackle these longstanding, intractible, resistant issues in the words of the Chief Medical Officer for Scotland. So that's what I will weigh up in my mind before I put pen to paper on Thursday.

Would I be prepared to be a good bit poorer myself if I honestly believed we could have a good go at this - I probably would. Am I scared by this - too right I am. I hope this is the mental process my fellow Scots go through on Thursday rather than all that stuff about the pound, the army etc.

Finally regardless of how the vote goes some of my besties are English and I expect it to remain that way.

Hunter

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by hazelbark » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:18 pm

vexillia wrote:You should always vote for what you want and be prepared to live with the consequences whatever they maybe.
Interesting notion. Quite novel. It never works that way. Most will complain that some nefarious entity tricked them.

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Re: Scotland referendum

Post by nigelemsen » Tue Sep 16, 2014 9:51 pm

One thing I never understood... My aren't scots south of the border allowed a vote? Especially the enorminaty of the vote....
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