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Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 4:50 pm
by Diplomaticus
At the risk of repeating myself, I urge the development team to "measure twice, cut once."

Are we sure we really have a problem here? Yes, if it really were true that the Early Blitz became an Axis uber-strategy, that would pose a problem. But I feel that people are over-reacting to a couple of AARs. The Early Blitz has always been an option, and if you look at some old AAR's you'll see it used with scary-impressive results. Same for the Dyle Plan. But neither has turned into a game-balance tipping sure-fire thing.

I am worried about calls to make the changes mentioned in this thread, because I don't want us making life any tougher for Axis than it already is. Assuming opponents of equal ability, who would you bet on? who has a better chance of victory, Axis or Allies? Just because an Axis player gets lucky with the weather and pulls off Sealion/seal-the-Med does not mean that Axis victory is in the bag. I point to this AAR: "Fortress Europa Improved" ... 78&t=33112 as evidence. [It's an AAR from 2012 on this forum] In that AAR Supermax conquered nearly the whole map, sealed the Med and all, yet he still lost in the end. And that was before a number of pro-Allied rules changes such as the fortress line in southern Russia, the espionage lab rules, etc.

Again, I stand ready to put my money where my mouth is: I'll take on any Axis opponent who wants to prove me wrong. In the mean time, I suggest, as I did above, that we gather more data before we decide to hamstring Axis even more.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 7:33 pm
by Plaid
I estimate chance of one turn conquest of Poland like 30-40%, not 80, but maybe I did something wrong in my tests.
One turn conquest of Belgium with limited forces is another tricky thing - its not ~100% success like in Sietzkrieg.
Secondary, Blitzkrieg costs lots of PPs in rail overuse and even with perfect rolls you can't just rely on Blitzkrieg - it is weather dependant.

I don't see a reason why we should ruin Blitzkrieg possibility completely by adding that fortress.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 8:34 pm
by duncanr
having been on the receiving end of a lot of lucky weather and successful Blitzkrieg I think its to early to tell if we need to change things

what we do know is that the allies have to have a different strategy than previous versions - something I learn't the hard way :-(

doesn't yet mean its broke, although I do think that if it becomes prevalent we might need to tweak US and Russian response a little

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:44 pm
by Peter Stauffenberg
There are some differences in Poland between GS v3.1 and GS v4.0. The main difference is that 2 German mech units are replaced by 4 German motorised units. That means a slightly higher mobility for the Germans. Maybe enough to have a decent shot at a 1 turn conquest of Warsaw. There are also some slight changes to the map around the Oder. Before the Oder was used to divide the border between Poland and Germany. Now the Oder is flowing within Germany. So the distance from the border to Warsaw might have changed a few places.

There is only one way to find out. That is to find a decent strategy for taking Warsaw in one turn and run simulations. E. g. you run 20 times and post the number of times Warsaw fell in one turn. If the chance is not higher than 30% then I don't think we have a problem. Especially if failing to take Warsaw in one turn will mean more Polish counter attacks etc.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 10:51 pm
by Vokt
Finally found time for doing a 1-turn Poland conquest hotseating test and found interesting things.

I succeeded 11 times out of 20, in taking Warsaw in 1 turn.

Key thing for doing it, apart from counting with 2 German tacs hits vs corps in Warsaw, appears to be to reserve the panzerkorps unit 2xE of Breslau for the attack on the Polish capital. So once Lodz area is cleared, referred armoured unit can reach the hex 1xS of Warsaw, this accounting for a total of 3 land attacks possible to be made against the city in the very first turn.

The fact is that I succeeded 11 times but it could well have been more, since 2 times Polish corps ended only at 1 step.

My conclusion is that this is something to definitely look at.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 1:42 am
by Peter Stauffenberg
Can you please describe step by step how you attack so I can try to repeat it myself. I need to know which hexes you hit with airstrikes and where each German land unit moves (use the unit name or initial position).

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:32 am
by bartek74
Hello :-)
What i found during testing the new game 4.0 is that when I conquered Poland in first turn, than weather is bad until April (in some games even til 28 of April), when i did it on second turn, weather was ok on 8,02.1940, 1 turn of bad weather and good weather starts again...

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 4:47 pm
by Vokt
Stauffenberg wrote:Can you please describe step by step how you attack so I can try to repeat it myself. I need to know which hexes you hit with airstrikes and where each German land unit moves (use the unit name or initial position).
As you must suppose all will depend on the rolls obtained but in general, below is the sequence of moves I used:

1. I Fliegerkorps (fighter near Stettin) attacks Polish corps named Armia Lodz, located 1xSW of Lodz
2. XVII, VIII, XIII and IV Armeekorps (corps units around Breslau and Ostrava) attack and finish off Armia Lodz and/or help in the seizure of Lodz. I mean, it will depend on the rolls, so sometimes even the attack of XVII and VIII corps is enough for finishing off Polish corps. In that case, the other 2 mentioned corps units can be used to attack Lodz.
3. IV Fliegerkorps (fighter near Breslau) attacks Lodz garrison.
4. XI Armeekorps (mot.) moves to the hex 1xN of Lodz and attacks Lodz garrison.
5. XV Armeekorps (mot.) moves to the hex 1xSW of Lodz and attacks Lodz garrison.
6. Remaining corps (as mentioned we can have a "surplus" of 1 or even 2 corps units from the attack to Armia Lodz) finish off Lodz garrison.
7. XIX Panzerkorps moves SE, attacks Grupa Kutno (a garrison), kills it (more rare), or forces a retreat (most of the times) NE.
8. XXI Armeekorps in Eastern Prussia, finishes off Grupa Kutno
9. III Armeekorps (mot.) attacks Armia Pomorze and forces it to retreat.
10. III Fliegerkorps (tac close to Berlin) attacks Warsaw
11. XVI Panzerkorps moves to the hex 1xS of Warsaw and attacks
12. II Fliegerkorps (the other tac) attacks Warsaw
13. XIV Panzerkorps moves to the hex 1xSW of Warsaw and attacks
14. II Armeekorps (corps unit 2xN of Posen) moves to the hex 1xNW of Warsaw and finishes off corps unit, taking the city.

Lodz is taken most of the times. It's only not succeeding in forcing Armia Pomorze to retreat (step 9) that can prevent German II Armeekorps from reaching Warsaw. Still, couple of times, nearby German garrisons achieved Armia Pomorze to retreat saving the day for the 1 turn conquest.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:23 pm
by Peter Stauffenberg
I sent you and updated 1939.scn file to test, Vokt. In the updated scenario file I've moved Armia Prusy from 2xS of Warsaw to 1xS + 1xSW of Warsaw. That is more correct according the following map. It means Armia Prusy gets ZOC on one hex usually used to take Warsaw. Now it becomes harder to get 3 units on Warsaw in just one turn since you also have to dislodge Armia Prusy to do so.

2 units on Warsaw on turn 1 can easily be done with just 2 armor units. So you still have a shot at a 1 turn conquest.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:28 pm
by Peter Stauffenberg
This is how the Polish deployment looks like then. I will be nice to have it tested out in a similar way to check the 1 turn conquest chance after running e. g. 20 times.

I'm reluctant to reinforce Poland because it means a stronger Polish counter attack if you don't capture Warsaw in 1 turn. This change only moves a Polish unit without making Poland stronger at all.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 5:59 pm
by Vokt
Tested slightly modified 1939 Poland OOB.

Chances of taking Warsaw in 1 turn were dramatically reduced. Only 2 times out of 20, I was able to conquer Poland on the first turn. And in those 2 times the conquest was mainly due to good rolls got.

So amazing how a little change on the units dispositions can have so much significance operationally. This should make us think about the importance of a good planning after doing moves.

Only thing I recalled from the 1939 OOB I consulted, is that Narew Group close to Eastern Prusia should be located a little bit on its NE (it was deployed near of Lithuania) and to make it a proper corps unit. Similarly and to compensate, German garrison unit in Eastern Prussia should be a corps unit (Wodrig corps but it can be named XXVI Armeekorps since it was renamed that way soon afterwards). This new disposition would give more punch to the German thrust to Warsaw from Eastern Prussia as it really happened. Right now those units got bogged down at the border with no participation at all in the attack to Warsaw.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 10:16 am
by Jimbonsx
Dunno about 80%.
30%? - I dream of 30% (with thanks to The Four Yorkshiremen)! I tried this 21 times, worked twice. Unless you can force Armia Lodz to retreat and the Lodz garrison to destruction it ain't happening. You have to get both to happen otherwise it's 2 turns.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sat Feb 18, 2017 6:31 pm
by Vokt
I also believe that 80% reported is too high of a percent got.

In my test, I got a slightly higher than 50% chance (11 out of 20 times). For a game that more or less intends to follow the timing of real WW2 that 1-September conquest of Poland got that frequently (50%) fit rather poorly.

And that's why it was proposed a slight change in Poland 1939 set up. By changing only 1 Polish unit by 1 hex it appears that this 50% chance of conquering Poland in one turn, doesn't exist anymore.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 3:55 am
by AugustusTiberius
Just started a game with Diplomaticus and voila, he took Poland in a turn. Must say I was surprised and not pleasantly at that. (Nicely done, Diplomaticus!)

He said he used a slightly different method then the one Vokt described so, that would lend support to his assertion of 80% as he did it slightly differently then how Vokt tested it at 55%.

Not sure if the replacement of Armia Prusy would have solved it but he came in in full force the same way so I hope it would.


Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 7:03 pm
by fangotango
I did a series of 80 repeats of turn 1 against Poland, following essentially the approach posted by Vokt. Total successes capturing Warsaw was 36 times, and 44 failures to capture Warsaw in one turn.

I did notice that over even 20 repeats, very large streaks could take place. For instance, in my first twenty repeats, there were 14 successes against only 6 failures. I can see how over only ten or twenty repeats someone could get an 80% success rate.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:24 pm
by Man0lo
Guyz shall I uninstall 3.10 in order to install 4.00? Cuz I face some bugs .... like cities being on Sea US east coast;Cagliari etc..!

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 1:31 am
by duncanr
you have to delete the .dat files to make it build the map correctly - search and delete the .dat map files

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 9:57 am
by Man0lo
If I reinstall 4.00 directly without 3.10 ?

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Sun Mar 12, 2017 11:04 am
by pk867
You still have to remove the old map25_nogrid.dat , map50_nogrid.dat , map100_nogrid.dat in image/background and image/backgroundnames folders

before running the game to have the maps tiles created. It takes a few minutes for the larger map tiles to be over-written.

Re: CEAW 4.0: First Impressions

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:15 am
by duncanr
Attack on Poland

Just did my first attack on Poland in v4 - not all attacks succeeded but still an easy 1 turn conquest