Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris please)

After action reports for Commander Europe at War.

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richardsd
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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:49 pm

oops, forgot to mention that we also killed the full CORP to the south of Voronezh

and that our Russian scientists need to be shot!

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Tue Mar 13, 2012 4:40 am

I don't think Morris has quite fiqured out whats happening with the DD sweeps in the Atlantic

I 'ran' around Greenland and bingo! - it is where I would hide if I was just trying to get out of the sea lanes, but not if I was being hunted

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the start in South, Morris said he was just going to wait as it was too cold

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we engage with all of our air (trying to burn Axis oil and PP's)and attack the MECH, arghhh 1 step left :cry:

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we have tried to subtely start our escape plan

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:18 am

bugger :( winter is over, Mud!

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we try to escape

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now it will get ugly, where possible we have moved out of range of the first strike

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Diplomaticus » Tue Mar 13, 2012 12:14 pm

Keep up the good fight! You're doing a lot better than I have. I have concluded that if M wants to drive all the way to Stalingrad and beyond, nothing we can do will stop him. Your move to preserve large, coherent forces in good defensive positions (near Moscow and south of Rostov) seems like the start of a good solution We just have to reconcile ourselves to yielding larger hunks of terrain than we'd like to. (/shrug)

In clear weather and in open terrain, it's just a slaughter, so I think we drop a few gar speedbumps and save the army.

Moscow should be defensible because of the woods. With a top-notch leader we should be able to keep him out of there, at least in '41.

If he drives south in 1942, I'd advise immediately falling back to the rough terrain along the Maikop-Grozny line and further south. He's going for the knockout blow against Russia, so he probably won't waste too much effort going after Baku (look at his game vs. Joe Rock, for instance).

If I could have replayed my game, I would have completely given up on trying to slow him down at Rostov/Stalingrad and just saved my troops.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:55 pm

the problem with the blob is that you can't let him have it all his way, he has played this out dozens of times in hotseat and against players. You cannot win if you let him follow his plan.

this turn comes with a little bit of good news - winter :o

so we get some more troops out

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in the Med we get a little victory, Morris has fallen into a little trap I have set. I used a few GAR's in transports to try and lure out the Italian navy.

Morris has sortied most of the fleet so I have inflicted a few steps and will certainly finish at least 1 BB. If he tries to get the wounded transport (which I doubt) he will be in serious trouble

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:12 am

I don't think Morris is doing that well in this game. So the changed rail rules had an impact on how far east he was able to push. Since the western Allies have taken Libya you can put pressure on him in Italy and later France. 1942 will be tough in the east, but if you can prevent him from taking the oilfields (Maikop and Grozny) early then it will help. Morris will probably try to get to the Caucasus and storm towards Omsk.

He's still in a good position, but not as in the game against Joerock. This game is still open and I guess Morris could do the mistake and not switch to defense in time. If he pushes too long then he might get overwhelmed. Repairing losses all the time and having to build units for Italy and the west is not easy.

You should probably let him bleed for every hex in the forests near Moscow. Fight him in such hexes and form river line defenses in open terrain. Staying in unprotected open hexes will only help him.

He won't be able to cross the Caucasus, but he will eventually get Maikop and Grozny. Avoid letting Morris get to the cities near the Urals or he can rail units there and have a shot at Omsk.

You have a chance for victory if you use the western Allied units well. If they become too aggressive (failed France invasion) or too passive then I think Morris would win.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by kaigab73 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:00 am

how many units you lost as russia so far (not counting garrisons and units near border in start f barbarossa)?

if you kept most of your army, you should now be able to flood both Moscow and Omsk to the point he will bleed a lot and won't be able to take both. and fall back in caucasus to mountains as soon as you see him moving for oilfields.

Allies well, can't see them doing DDay in '42, you don't have enough air units to make impossible for Morris to defend. i would personally skip italy and save the resources for a strong Dday in '43 (you can have USA having in UK 12 TAC by '43 summer and UK 12 FTR and mechs), i guarantee you Axis won't be able to even get to the landing beaches :D.

By now Sicily will be flooded by troops, you will be able to take Sardinia but then what? you haven't the airpower to really be dangerous, he will just use italians +2/3 german units to prevent any landing on italy.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:06 am

DDay in 43 is likely a disaster against Morris, sure you will get ashore, but then you will face an army of MECH's at max tech, teh TAC's mostly bounce off :-(

I know this from experience. I feel for joerock too, as I think he will do really well and make progress only to find the MECH wall of steel

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:12 am

Stauffenberg wrote:I don't think Morris is doing that well in this game. So the changed rail rules had an impact on how far east he was able to push. Since the western Allies have taken Libya you can put pressure on him in Italy and later France. 1942 will be tough in the east, but if you can prevent him from taking the oilfields (Maikop and Grozny) early then it will help. Morris will probably try to get to the Caucasus and storm towards Omsk.

He's still in a good position, but not as in the game against Joerock. This game is still open and I guess Morris could do the mistake and not switch to defense in time. If he pushes too long then he might get overwhelmed. Repairing losses all the time and having to build units for Italy and the west is not easy.

You should probably let him bleed for every hex in the forests near Moscow. Fight him in such hexes and form river line defenses in open terrain. Staying in unprotected open hexes will only help him.

He won't be able to cross the Caucasus, but he will eventually get Maikop and Grozny. Avoid letting Morris get to the cities near the Urals or he can rail units there and have a shot at Omsk.

You have a chance for victory if you use the western Allied units well. If they become too aggressive (failed France invasion) or too passive then I think Morris would win.
yep, I have to make him pay dearly in PP's AND time to get the oil, he can't go to Omsk without the oil (well I don't think he can!)

part of the problem is that the low tech Russian's haven't killed that much. Only two ARM plus another 60 steps maybe, hopefully the air I have been nibbling at will be hurting.

I also forgot to post that he has moved two minor FTR's to the west to protect the German synth oil plant - I take that as a small victory as well :(

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:46 am

Do you think we maybe overdid it when we lowered the starting Russian tech in armor, infantry etc.?

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:24 am

Stauffenberg wrote:Do you think we maybe overdid it when we lowered the starting Russian tech in armor, infantry etc.?
maybe, points to consider:

1. whilst my defence in Russia has been ok - you just can't stop him taking Stalingrad, maybe thats a bit too much in 41

2. this was a May start, an April start would be a killer

3. I have messed up outside of Russia, so could do better there

the bit that scares me is the weather!

on balance I think we should up the INF tech, I think the ARM is fine and we don't want to create Russian ARM blobs, I reguarly build 4 in games where I suspect a slightly
weaker Barbarossa, so that plus two Siberian would be too much I think (if made stronger)

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Kragdob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:35 am

Stauffenberg wrote:Do you think we maybe overdid it when we lowered the starting Russian tech in armor, infantry etc.?
Maybe go back to allow to focus on research again? This is hitting Soviets mostly (ORG and FTR techs)
Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by richardsd » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:51 am

Kragdob wrote:
Stauffenberg wrote:Do you think we maybe overdid it when we lowered the starting Russian tech in armor, infantry etc.?
Maybe go back to allow to focus on research again? This is hitting Soviets mostly (ORG and FTR techs)
yes, that does hurt the Russian's but FTR tech is a waste against the current Morris 'blob', you don't have enough PP's to invest in FTR's

I would put focus on ORG and INF (fixed defence and anti tank at appropriately)

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Kragdob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:22 pm

Maybe Soviets could get more GARs on August 1st? this could help slow Germans in 1941 and help building defensive line closer than on Volga river

I don't like that it looks like reaching Stalingrad in 1941 seems to became no-brainer now. I know that it comes from 'run and save' tactics that everybody uses not but it comes from no possibility to fight Germans in 1941 (as opposed to real war).

In real war Morris south-blog strategy would mean that you would not get even close to Moscow in 1941. Here they can easily.

(post 2.1) Maybe Barbarossa should not mean -30% to effectiveness of all soviet troops but instead shock attack/defense should be increased vastly for German ARM/MECH and air units in 1941 and (to much lesser extent) in 1942?
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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Diplomaticus » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:41 pm

Kragdob wrote:Maybe Soviets could get more GARs on August 1st? this could help slow Germans in 1941 and help building defensive line closer than on Volga river

I don't like that it looks like reaching Stalingrad in 1941 seems to became no-brainer now. I know that it comes from 'run and save' tactics that everybody uses not but it comes from no possibility to fight Germans in 1941 (as opposed to real war).

In real war Morris south-blog strategy would mean that you would not get even close to Moscow in 1941. Here they can easily.

(post 2.1) Maybe Barbarossa should not mean -30% to effectiveness of all soviet troops but instead shock attack/defense should be increased vastly for German ARM/MECH and air units in 1941 and (to much lesser extent) in 1942?
I don't think I agree... at least not yet. I'm not yet convinced that things are as bad as they look. I'm with Borger who argues that we need to stop M's strategy "on the battlefield."

Since we're talking history, and what Germany could/couldn't do, we have to remember that there was zero a) Battle of Britain, b) Africa campaign, c) Battle of the Atlantic (beyond starting forces), etc. Now, who's to say what Hitler couldn't have done by skipping all those--especially the awful drain of the BoB--and putting all his eggs in the Russia basket?

And, as in RL, in the game there will be consequences. The UK is much, much stronger for having all those unsunk convoys, free run of Africa, etc. It's a matter of finding the right forumla for making the UK maximally effective until the USA joins in. Maybe a 1941 invasion of France is doomed from the start, the way Morris does things. If that's the case, we need to find other ways of hurting Axis. Or maybe it's just about finding the right tactics to make an early invasion really work. This, IMO, is a big part of what we should be working on.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by kaigab73 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:53 pm

i agree with saying a strategy must be found on the battleground. Historically Germany started barbarossa in 22 June, russians tried to fight back (and lost nearly 3M men between dead/wounded/prisoners, this to say in '41 russians were no match for the germans before winter) and STILL hitler managed to get to Rostov/Leningrad/Moscow. He didn't take Moscow for a matter of weeks (siberian troops arrived in Moscow which was abandoned by even police men few days before Germany started the offensive).

Here we have:
- Russians not fighting back but just retreating
- Barbarossa started in May or even April
- Germany who neglected Greece/Atlantic/Africa
- Germany not doing any Battle of Britain
If Hitler didn't invade Greece nor sent troops to Africa nor tried to bomb UK and started Barbarossa early May he would have taken Moscow for sure and problably also Stalingrad (or at least getting close to).

As it is in the game now, if Germany starts barbarossa in 22 June they can barely get close to Moscow/Rostov before Winter so i think balance is ok. Yes, if Germany starts in May or April if lucky (well as axis i never saw april with good weather, i think it's pretty rare) Russia has a problem....in RL if Hitler invaded Russia early May they would have started offensive of Moscow by mid august and problably now in europe we would all speak german :D

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Kragdob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:23 pm

kaigab73 wrote:i agree with saying a strategy must be found on the battleground.
What I write is loud thinking mostly I tend to agree but 2 things keeps worrying me:

=> making rail depot on Romania border made it very easy for Germans to deploy on the South - whether in accordance with RL or not it changed the Barbarossa and German abilities to deploy huge forces in the south within tight schedule they have before Barbarossa starts. Before it took much longer to do so.
=> if Germans keeps postition far East beyond Stalingrad by late 1943 they can virtually abandon all Eastern front (for game purposes) as Soviets will have hard time to get to Berlin even with very little German units on their way. Baring Wester Allies will have lower techs in their ground units it will be hard for Allied 1943/1944 invasion to stay ashore.

Baring this isn't reaching Stalingrad in 1941 too much favouring Axis? I don't know - my thinking is just theoretical and I want to see what happens in current AARs in 1943 and later.
kaigab73 wrote:he would have taken Moscow for sure and problably also Stalingrad (or at least getting close to).
I do not agree. Just look what happened at Kharkov during winter 1941/1942. Soviet attack threatened deep rears of Army Group South and Germans had to use anything (Police division/ Romanians/ Italians etc.) to stop the Soviet breakthrough. Similar on the North. Germans were very weak except Moscow.

But that's beyond this discussion.
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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by kaigab73 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:51 pm

Kragdob wrote:
kaigab73 wrote:
kaigab73 wrote:he would have taken Moscow for sure and problably also Stalingrad (or at least getting close to).
I do not agree. Just look what happened at Kharkov during winter 1941/1942. Soviet attack threatened deep rears of Army Group South and Germans had to use anything (Police division/ Romanians/ Italians etc.) to stop the Soviet breakthrough. Similar on the North. Germans were very weak except Moscow.

But that's beyond this discussion.
you said it: during winter. the thing is, that IF hitler invaded russia by early may, he would have 6-7 more weeks...meaning he would have finished encircling Red Army in ukraine by end of july instead of mid September, he would have started the attack on Moscow by mid August and so Moscow would have fallen. In South Hitler got to conquer (and then retreat) from Rostov with a Barbarossa starting mid june. If he started 6 weeks earlier, he would have taken Rostov by end of August.

Morris started barbarossa in May, so saying "stalingrad is too much" is wrong IMO as historically germans started barbarossa 6 weeks later. in addition, Hitler headed for Ukraine then Moscow, Morris is heading straight for Stalingrad. if Hitler started Barbarossa 1st of May and focused to take Stalingrad, i think he would have taken it.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by kaigab73 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 6:56 pm

Kragdob wrote:
kaigab73 wrote:i agree with saying a strategy must be found on the battleground.
What I write is loud thinking mostly I tend to agree but 2 things keeps worrying me:

=> making rail depot on Romania border made it very easy for Germans to deploy on the South - whether in accordance with RL or not it changed the Barbarossa and German abilities to deploy huge forces in the south within tight schedule they have before Barbarossa starts. Before it took much longer to do so.
=> if Germans keeps postition far East beyond Stalingrad by late 1943 they can virtually abandon all Eastern front (for game purposes) as Soviets will have hard time to get to Berlin even with very little German units on their way. Baring Wester Allies will have lower techs in their ground units it will be hard for Allied 1943/1944 invasion to stay ashore.

Baring this isn't reaching Stalingrad in 1941 too much favouring Axis? I don't know - my thinking is just theoretical and I want to see what happens in current AARs in 1943 and later.
The second point is true, however i think the point should be making a DDAY in '43 and on same time starting offensive in east. as allies i would for sure go for a '43 dday (waiting for '44 means defeat for sure).

In my experience in '43 you can have so much air supeiority that france invasion is possible if German troops are too far east.

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Re: Can we save the Bear, Richardsd vs Morris (no Morris ple

Post by Kragdob » Wed Mar 14, 2012 7:54 pm

kaigab73 wrote:you said it: during winter. the thing is, that IF hitler invaded russia by early may, he would have 6-7 more weeks...meaning he would have finished encircling Red Army in ukraine by end of july instead of mid September, he would have started the attack on Moscow by mid August and so Moscow would have fallen. In South Hitler got to conquer (and then retreat) from Rostov with a Barbarossa starting mid june. If he started 6 weeks earlier, he would have taken Rostov by end of August.

Morris started barbarossa in May, so saying "stalingrad is too much" is wrong IMO as historically germans started barbarossa 6 weeks later. in addition, Hitler headed for Ukraine then Moscow, Morris is heading straight for Stalingrad. if Hitler started Barbarossa 1st of May and focused to take Stalingrad, i think he would have taken it.
You are right.

So the question is why there is no winter counter offensive in the AARs we observe? In RL Germans were pushed from Moscow, at Kharkov and even on the North. In games with Morris he looses like 2-3 corps and that's it. Is this just Morris so superb? Isn't his defense at Uralsk proving that sever winter in 3rd lvl supply zone is not a killer for Axis or again is this just M.?
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