GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

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Cybvep
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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Cybvep » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:03 am

Move the units around so that the Dyle Plan is impossible until turn 2. I don't think that Holland should join the Axis - that seems very far-fetched. Holland surrendering to the Germans if Belgium is taken by the Allies is nonsensical. However, delaying HOL mobilisation until 1940 sounds ok. We can assume that they need time to prepare for war. On the other hand, we need to think about the consequences of that - will it not make it easier for the ALLIES to take Holland in 1939? Maybe HOL's dynamic GAR should always be deployed in the south if Belgium is attacked by the Allies?

Plaid got unlucky because of the weather and the fact that he moved that corps somewhere else. In case of Dyle, you need to take Holland or you will struggle in France, because it's very very hard to take Belgium if you don't attack Holland. Once Holland is out of the way, it's really not that bad. Yeah, you get higher casualties, but the Allied PP income is lower in 1939-1941 and Paris often falls quite early, which gives the Axis many opportunities. You can also be sure that the Canadians will arrive late. Yes, you cannot use the same strategy that you use in case of standard Blitzkrieg or Sitzkrieg. You probably need to sacrifice labs and build more units, which is what Joe did in his game against Morris. Variety is good, though. The important thing is to make sure that a successful Dyle is not a game-winner.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:27 am

The Allies can DOW Belgium and Holland on the same turn if they want to invade both countries and have them at reduced strength.

I don't think it's likely that the Allies will DoW Holland. First they have to move through Belgium and in the mean time the Axis can get their forces to the west.

This game probably shows the risk of going after Scandinavia in 1939. Then you need to get corps units to Bremen on turn 1 to sail towards Norway. That opens up for a Dyle. That is fine with me. Scandinavia was invaded in April 1940 in the real war.

So Morris is right that if you abandon the west as the Axis on turn 1 then you can't respond to a Dyle by entering into Liege and Antwerp on turn 2 by DoW'ing Holland.

Maybe players need to rethink their Case White strategy and use slightly fewer units to get to Warsaw to ensure they have enough to overrun Holland with in case of a Dyle?

I don't think you will see often situations like Plaid experienced with a fall of France in December 1940. Especially not after this game where everybody now learns the need to be prepared against a Dyle.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Plaid » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:27 am

I don't think that occupying Liege is the main problem here.

Main problem is no allied morale loss and fact that allies have more fighter units (2 + CV) in 1939 and they can repair every day.

So if Luftwaffe fighters keeps escorting, they will suffer huge casualties because operating depleted, and if fighters repair axis can't use bombers. Without bombers it is very hard to destroy any unit in difficult Belgium terrain.

That was the reason why original rule "air units in Britain suffer morale penalty too" was introdeced, and Dyle plan is new way to avoid this morale loss.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:42 am

It's not logical that the Allies should lose morale by being successful. The lost morale after a Case Yellow was because the German blitzkrieg into Belgium filled the roads with hostages thus cluttering roads for Allied troops.

Doing a Dyle means that you won't be surprised the same way in Belgium. You get to the good defensive positions. So it doesn't make sense to punish the Allies for doing so.

If we want to do something with Dyle then you might move some Allied units a bit further away from Belgium in the 1939 scenario so the Allied player will use turn 1 to deploy at the border for an attack on turn 2.

Germany should mainly use 1939 to get Holland in case of a Dyle. That should be accomplished without having to do a lot of airstrikes. In case of a Dyle you need to build another German fighter asap.

During the bad weather time you probably won't get much progress, but you will outproduce the Allies to get ready for a strong attack when the fair weather arrives in 1940.

Remember that Dyle was possible in GS v2.1 as well. The only change between GS v3.0 and GS v2.1 is that the Allies will NOT get the Canadian units when Belgium is attacked in case of Dyle, but rather the Spring of 1940. So it's less lucrative now doing a Dyle in GS v3.0. We have seen quite a few AAR's where a Dyle attack has been overcome by the Axis and they did well afterwards.

I think the only issue we have is the success rate of a successful Dyle turn 1. I think the success rate should be a bit lower. A turn 2 Dyle should be almost guaranteed. Redeploying the Allied units in the 1939 scenario can help a bit lowering the success rate for a turn 1 Dyle.

At the moment I suggest we do nothing. Let's get more feedback from games with turn 1 Dyle's. It would be interesting to see what happens if the Germans have some units to send into Liege and Antwerp and get at least 1 fair weather turn in October / November to take out Holland.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Cybvep » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:18 am

Well, the best way to counter Dyle is to do Blitzkrieg and attack Holland in turn 2, even if it means worse progress in Poland. Fair weather is guaranteed then. The problem is that if Dyle becomes a common strategy with little risk for the Allies, then we will rarely see the historical Sitzkrieg, because everybody will try to avoid being Dyled and will try to do Blitzkrieg. That won't be good.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Fri Oct 11, 2013 12:37 pm

Dyle was possible in GS v2.1 too and even more lucrative than now. I don't think we saw many turn 1 Dyle's in GS v2.1. So why would we expect more Dyle's in GS v3.0? Morris is no ordinary player and if you play the Axis against him then you can expect a Dyle and ensure you take out Holland on turn 2 by doing a semi-blitzkrieg instead of a sitzkrieg.

A turn 2 blitzkrieg won't counter a turn 1 Allied Dyle since Belgium has already fallen.

If the Germans get Holland in 1939 and can snipe at some French units during the bad weather period then I think the later fall of Paris will be outweighed by smaller Allied convoys, lower US production etc.

If you get only bad weather in October and November and couldn't send any units into Belgium then being hit by a Dyle is nasty. The main problem would be if all hexes on the Belgian river line would be Allied controlled. Then a double defense line there can be tough to crack. This is why it's so important for the Germans to get a unit into Liege. This unit will survive counter attacks since it will remain a fortress until fair weather in 1940 hits. If Liege is Axis controlled when the fair weather starts in 1940 then it should be easier to break out from the Allied river line in Belgium.

Plaid never got a chance to do that due to weather and redeployment of the German western corps units.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Plaid » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:41 pm

I think allies should not have any initiative in 1939 at all. It must be axis player decision to do sitz / blitz/ half-blitz / whatever.
Situation "you must transfer some units from Poland on turn 1, or you will be Dyl'ed and suffer badly" just feels wrong.
Maybe German OOB in the west should be changed, so Germans should be ready to face turn 1 allied invasion?

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Fri Oct 11, 2013 2:46 pm

Turn 4 Mud


Mud again ! But axis still launch limited attack to a French Gar & reduce it to 3 steps & that's all on the ground . Also some dogfight . we lost 3steps & Luftwaffe lost 0 ! It seems BF109 really performs better than our FTR .




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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Blathergut » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:06 pm

1. It seems it is just game mechanics that makes the Allies 'Declare War' on Belgium. It's the only way to be able to deploy there. So I wouldn't see it as strange that Allies are declaring on Allies; it's just a game mechanic to allow that deployment option. It seems like it was a possibility at the time. If the Allies had together acted as quickly as Monsieur Morris, this could have been the situation.

2. The Allies know that the Germans are completely committed to Poland. That's part of the problem here. If there had been a possibility of a German attack into France and/or Belgium in September, would the French have committed so much into Belgium? Could the Germans be given one or two units to deploy freely at start? Would this make the Dyle deployment more difficult or risky for the French?

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Blathergut » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:21 pm

Or give the Germans some extra rail points for the first turn to bring in a bit more options/doubt as to deployment?

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:22 pm

Turn 5 Nov 20th 1939 Mud


The new French gar was reduced to red one again in Mud ! We have to suiside the gar & keep defence the hex . Better performance by Allies airforce .








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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:51 pm

Turn 6 winter Dec 10th 1939


finally Axis conquer that hex . Nothing else to report but some more dog fight . Allies airforce perform better . :)






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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sat Oct 12, 2013 2:56 pm

Turn 7 Dec 30th 1939 winter




peace turn




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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:01 pm

Turn 8 Jan 19th 1940 winter



another peace turn :)





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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Kragdob » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:50 pm

Why Axis does not attack on the GAR from 3 hexes. They should be able to destroy it even in winter. Now Allies get 2 turns for free...
Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by petertodd » Sat Oct 12, 2013 10:01 pm

More on the Dyle plan. I agree with Plaid that the biggest problem for the Axis is not about Liege, but the lack of any Allied morale loss. The morale loss rule seems intended to enable the Germans in this game to recreate a measure of the success they historically had in the France campaign. It seems arbitrary to make it contingent on the simultaneous loss of Brussels and The Hague. The French probably started with poor morale, and the reason it got much worse was the rapid penetration of the German panzers behind French lines, which had nothing to do with Brussels, The Hague, or refugees clogging the roads. Obviously this penetration of the Allied lines cannot really be simulated in this game, but why not just make the loss of Allied morale automatic when the Germans attack in the west? I don't think the Dyle plan adds much to the game. If it works well then the Axis is in trouble very early, and it won't be a very interesting game (my prediction for this game).

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:52 am

Kragdob wrote:Why Axis does not attack on the GAR from 3 hexes. They should be able to destroy it even in winter. Now Allies get 2 turns for free...

I think he just wanted to wait for fair day to reduce casualties . But myabe the choice is a little bit wrong .

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sun Oct 13, 2013 5:57 am

OK , I am really not good at long English explaination about whether to take Liege is the key point of the Dyle plan's sucess . But I 'd like to make an offer that If anyone who doesnot believe this ,we can try a pbem by AAR to prove it . I will be the Axis . :) Thanks for your help !

Looking forward to the challenge !

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Peter Stauffenberg » Sun Oct 13, 2013 8:32 am

petertodd wrote:More on the Dyle plan. I agree with Plaid that the biggest problem for the Axis is not about Liege, but the lack of any Allied morale loss. The morale loss rule seems intended to enable the Germans in this game to recreate a measure of the success they historically had in the France campaign. It seems arbitrary to make it contingent on the simultaneous loss of Brussels and The Hague.
Hague does not have anything to do with the Allied morale loss. Only Brussels. The morale loss came from the effects of the German blitzkrieg.

To me it is wrong to think that the Allies should automatically get a morale loss. The German case Yellow invasion was a huge gamble and only paid off because they were able to surprise the Allies. If they had followed the original plan (similar to the WW1 Schlieffen plan) then it could have ended up as a war of attrition similar to what Plaid will face here.

The Allies would have performed pretty well if they could have defended the way they planned. In the real war the Germans struck through the Ardennes and caught the Allies by surprise. Then you got panic among the Allied leaders and their defense crumbled. Their best units were trapped in Belgium etc.

A problem for any game is that all Allied players will know about the weakness near the Ardennes and not repeat that mistake.

We have had GS v2.1 out for one year and not seen a lot of turn 1 Dyle's. So I don't see a reason to change anything in GS v3.0 just because of what Morris did. Let's get more data from other games before making any conclusions. E. g. Joerock was hit by a Dyle from Morris in GS v2.1 and crushed the Allies.

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Re: GS 3.0 Plaid Axis vs Morris Allies

Post by Morris » Sun Oct 13, 2013 11:18 am

Stauffenberg wrote:
petertodd wrote:More on the Dyle plan. I agree with Plaid that the biggest problem for the Axis is not about Liege, but the lack of any Allied morale loss. The morale loss rule seems intended to enable the Germans in this game to recreate a measure of the success they historically had in the France campaign. It seems arbitrary to make it contingent on the simultaneous loss of Brussels and The Hague.
Hague does not have anything to do with the Allied morale loss. Only Brussels. The morale loss came from the effects of the German blitzkrieg.

To me it is wrong to think that the Allies should automatically get a morale loss. The German case Yellow invasion was a huge gamble and only paid off because they were able to surprise the Allies. If they had followed the original plan (similar to the WW1 Schlieffen plan) then it could have ended up as a war of attrition similar to what Plaid will face here.

The Allies would have performed pretty well if they could have defended the way they planned. In the real war the Germans struck through the Ardennes and caught the Allies by surprise. Then you got panic among the Allied leaders and their defense crumbled. Their best units were trapped in Belgium etc.

A problem for any game is that all Allied players will know about the weakness near the Ardennes and not repeat that mistake.

We have had GS v2.1 out for one year and not seen a lot of turn 1 Dyle's. So I don't see a reason to change anything in GS v3.0 just because of what Morris did. Let's get more data from other games before making any conclusions. E. g. Joerock was hit by a Dyle from Morris in GS v2.1 and crushed the Allies.

In GS 2.1 ages . I have tried 4-6 times of Dyle plan . The one with Joe was my first Dyle plan & was badly hurt by Joe just because I didn't get Liege . Then I developed the Dyle plan . After that all my Dyle plan sucessed & it made the patch against Dyle launched . After that patch , I never did Dyle in GS 2.1 .

After 3.0 launched ,since the map changed & I think there is a new oppotunity to try Dyle plan especially in turn 1 . So just a try . :)

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