First, the notion of the Turtle strategy is not clearly defined. What does the turtle means? Does it means that the Axis does not want to touch the Meuse? Or does it implies that the Axis not only avoid the Meuse but also form a defensive line? If the defensive line is broken by the Axis player himself or herself, then would it not be a turtle strategy anymore?
On the contrary, that both players trade resources (time, units, locations) with each other is true and genuine. The Axis dismisses the defensive line to cut the Allied supply, for instance. While making a cunning trade can benefit one side and hurt the other side, be flexible! Thus, we conclude that no defensive lines are permanent.
The Axis without the OKW reserve cannot properly defend, at least not perfectly, all important locations. However, it is true that the Allied's threat is merely limited to one or two locations. Very limited threats are not enough, and the Allied have to trade with the Axis to gain more benefit in order to be reasonably likely to win.
Some examples to make this more concrete: (refer to the screen shot below)
What if the armored stack in Werbomont is in Herve? It will be able to attack SPA or Eupen tomorrow. If it will attack Eupen, then what would likely be the result? The calculation follows:
[cal]
11 pips with 50%(0.5) hit chance, and 7 pips with 60%(0.6) hit chance.
We expect each pip with 50%(0.5) hit chance to score 0.5(1/2) pips, and each pip with 60%(0.6) hit chance to score 0.6(3/5) pips.
...
11*0.5+7*0.6=9.7
[/cal]
We expect the armored stack to score 9.7 pips.
The forest and the small town absorb 3 pips. We expect to inflict 6.7 pips on the Axis infantry divisions currently in Eupen. Since the Axis infantries have 7 pips in total, I estimate that the chance of elimination is more than 35%. (proof needed, but if you trust me) Note, that this type of calculation is done in games frequently, because I am an expert.
What if the Allied has created an armored stack in Liege yesterday? (give up other locations and any assault plans, and move to Liege) Then, it can be deployed with a single activation today, it can be deployed today to a large area, it can produce threats in all locations even further than that area, but the Axis cannot perfectly defend all those locations. If the stack was the last to be deployed today and would be the first to attack tomorrow, then one weakness of the many weaknesses would certainly be exploited by the Allied. If it would break through Eupen, then the defensive line would become chaotic, which is fun for most allied people.
In conclusion, beating the defensive strategy is difficult, the Allied is better to prevent it from happening by, in the days that precedes, holding key positions which are not adjacent to the Meuse while defending the Meuse river. As you can see, to deal with the defensive strategy, one needs have considerations throughout the entire game!
Edit: Here is an illustration of a trade. (second picture)
I am the Allied, and the Axis is an expert, I believe. Its his or her turn now. My first feeling is moving 1ss to Eupen (though, i am hoping, from my perspective, it be Veriers) later in the day, but not right away. Cunning, hey? Every trade has a "pitfall" in it.
Edit: (To the Axis) when advancing, end your panzers today in the spaces that is overall the closest to all allied frontal positions of tomorrow. By being closer, I mean requiring fewer days to go to.
Maybe at this point you have already found this post to be clueless. This is True. In fact, all that have been said can be summaried into few sentences, and can serve no purpose but to illustrate these: the game is imbalanced; and It is through surprising your opponents, driving the game into a situation of which your opponent have no adaquate experience, and thinking more thoroughly to make clearer judgement than your competitor, then act with respect to your judgement that you can win the games. ( Edit: All strategies listed here have very few practical uses of balancing the axis advantage)
