CEAW GS: Fortress Europa Strategy too powerful

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Here are some articles:

http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/script ... plans.html

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1390229/posts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_off ... ontroversy

http://latvianhistory.wordpress.com/201 ... 1939-1941/

There are also more articles.

What they say is that Stalin saw war with Germany as inevitable. Stalin's plan was to let the Germans and the western Allies wear themselves out in the west so Russia could invade from the east. Stalin's initial plan was to invade in 1941 because he then expected Germany to be deadlocked in a war of attrition in the west, just like in WW1.

The problem for Russia was that their mighty army performed rather poorly in the Finnish winter war. That resulted in a need for a reorganization of the Russian army. To make it even worse for Stalin he saw France make an armistice with Germany in June 1940. So the western front for the Germans was no longer a western front. This thwarted Stalin's initial plans for invading Germany in 1941. Russia began transferring units to their western border in the Spring of 1941, but the rail capacity wasn't big enough to transfer the forces fast enough. So Russia was nowhere near ready to invade Germany in the Summer of 1941 if Germany hadn't invaded first.

What the documents show is that the mentality of Stalin was that his Red Army was an offensive army that should be used to obtain his goal, i. e. domination in Europe. He wanted conflict with Germany when the Red Army was ready for the fight. So war was inevitable.

The historians don't agree upon when Russia really wanted to go to war. Some say 1941 and some say 1942. My opinion is that the plan was originally 1941, but the initial German successes made that time impossible. This became a moot point regardless, because Germany invaded June 22nd 1941.

If we would have made any changes to Russian activation in GS it should be something like Russia being activated in Spring 1941 if France was still alive by the end of 1940. Otherwise Spring 1942. I just don't think that's necessary to implement because if the Axis player has failed to take Paris by the end of 1940 they have probably lost the game already.

[Giovanni705]

This is higly controversial. Almost no western historian would agree. It was a Hitler thesis to justify his preentive strike, but hard proves are to be found. Besides it is a little strange that a country soon bound to a war of aggression was so ill prepared to fight on his own ground ....

[Cybvep]

In 1941? Not a chance, even Stalin wasn't so delusional. In 1942 or 1943? That's much more likely.

[Morris]

Borger's idea seems reasonable . As you know that when Germany launched Babarosa , they found there were many Tacs on the airport . If they won't plan to attack , what did these tacs use for ? defence by tacs ? the only reason they give up the mission was Hitler launched Babarosa first !

[Kragdob]

Borger's idea seems reasonable . As you know that when Germany launched Babarosa , they found there were many Tacs on the airport . If they won't plan to attack , what did these tacs use for ? defence by tacs ? the only reason they give up the mission was Hitler launched Babarosa first !

There are many smaller and bigger indices that even 1941 was an option for Stalin and I tend to agree it was possible.

Red Army was strictly offensive one and in positions for Soviet blitz (no deep defensive lines, major forces concentrated in Bialystok & Lviv pockets) and this is why German blitz was so shockingly succesfull.

[veritas]

Here are some articles:
.....

Wow, this is fascinating. Thanks!!!
I had originally thought the unprovoked 1941 Soviet DOW in the vanilla game was a contrivance purely for game balance purposes. While it is still debatable, it looks like there's at least enough historical evidence for an argument to be made.

[supermax]

If i am not mistaken, i was kinda the first player to do an AAr on it a while ago against Zechi, and thats why the startegy is called fortress europa . That game went well and then some, so i won. The next installment, which i thought was an improved version, saw me loose against Diplomaticus mainly because of oil.

I have done several other try at this strategy (against cautious players like diplomaticus or agressive like minor) and i have come to the conclusion that the main important things that you need to do in a Fortress Europa strategy are the following:

1- Sealion as early as possible in 1940. England needs to fall, there is no choice.
2- You HAVE to grab middle east oil. You will need a lot of oil to keep the Russian hordes at bay
3- Do not build a powerful axis fleet. Build the greatest air armada the world as ever seen. With the oil you grabbed and the 15-20 tac you can field, anything the allies will throw at you in 43 and 44 can me dodged. The Russians advance with their zillions of tanks? bomb them with your tac (of course escorted by your fighters). Any offensive undertaken by the Red will flaunder under stukas.
4- The allies want to re-land in Europe? Well, they might try Africa or England, or Spain if you conquered it. Well then your TACS will also come handy in this situation
5- Build subs and a highly mechanized german army.
6- Spain is optional. Its ideal yes, but ive succeded without it. the good thing about Spain is that if you dont try for it the allies might start their "reconquest" in the MED, which plays right into your hands, its a lot easier to defend there that in England.

[Cybvep]

2- You HAVE to grab middle east oil. You will need a lot of oil to keep the Russian hordes at bay

I disagree about this one. If you are not going for offensive Barbarossa, you don't need that much additional oil. However, you seem to prefer to build a massive fleet (I usually don't do this), so this may change things.

6- Spain is optional. Its ideal yes, but ive succeded without it. the good thing about Spain is that if you dont try for it the allies might start their "reconquest" in the MED, which plays right into your hands, its a lot easier to defend there that in England.

True, but if you close the Med, the Allies will really be struggling to gain a foothold anywhere. Of course, they will do that eventually, but it tends to be easier when Spain & Portugal are not under Axis control. At least in my games, that is. Also, Italy usually survives longer and it's nice to a have an additional non-German PP and MP pool .

[supermax]

The reason you need the Oil is because you will be running 15 FTR, 12-15 TACS and high number of tanks mech forces + sub.

That oil will come in handy believe me to keep the russian hordes in check.

When you have a 200+ revenue in 1941, you tend to spend a lot with the germans... And it isnt rare that you start building strategic bombers just because the overcost of TAC or FTR is too high, and you dont want to overspend on ground troops because you want to keep your manpower high.<

I leaned in my game against Diplomatius that you need a lake of oil to keep the german was machine going in 1943-44 with a HEAVY air cover.

[Morris]

If i am not mistaken, i was kinda the first player to do an AAr on it a while ago against Zechi, and thats why the startegy is called fortress europa . That game went well and then some, so i won. The next installment, which i thought was an improved version, saw me loose against Diplomaticus mainly because of oil.

Excuse me , I believe I was the first player to do an AAR of the first Europe Fortress on Nov 8th 2011 with Zechi (the AAR's name is " New Axis Strategy ") & your Europe fortress with Zechi was start from Nov 29th 2011 with Zechi ( the AAR's name is "FORTRESS EUROPE").

anyway , I think Max's conclusion is reasonable but difficult to excute except Max himself It needs high lvl of skills & mistakes from Allies .If you are not as skillful as Max or your opponent is a very skillful Allies player ,you will be in great trouble with a not sucessful Europe Fortress . Anyone don't believe this , I want offer a lesson with an AAR with you .

[Cybvep]

The reason you need the Oil is because you will be running 15 FTR, 12-15 TACS and high number of tanks mech forces + sub.

Yes, but I never ran out of oil in my games. Do you attack the Soviets in 1942? I only do a small mop-up and for that, you don't need to use all your air units. Then it's defence only for me and with high industrial tech and little offensive action. the oil stockpile isn't bad at all.

[Crazygunner1]

All cred to Max for this strategy....but my fingers would be itching to much not to be able to attack

[gerones]

Here are some articles:

http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/script ... plans.html

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1390229/posts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_off ... ontroversy

http://latvianhistory.wordpress.com/201 ... 1939-1941/

There are also more articles.

What they say is that Stalin saw war with Germany as inevitable. Stalin's plan was to let the Germans and the western Allies wear themselves out in the west so Russia could invade from the east. Stalin's initial plan was to invade in 1941 because he then expected Germany to be deadlocked in a war of attrition in the west, just like in WW1.

The problem for Russia was that their mighty army performed rather poorly in the Finnish winter war. That resulted in a need for a reorganization of the Russian army. To make it even worse for Stalin he saw France make an armistice with Germany in June 1940. So the western front for the Germans was no longer a western front. This thwarted Stalin's initial plans for invading Germany in 1941. Russia began transferring units to their western border in the Spring of 1941, but the rail capacity wasn't big enough to transfer the forces fast enough. So Russia was nowhere near ready to invade Germany in the Summer of 1941 if Germany hadn't invaded first.

What the documents show is that the mentality of Stalin was that his Red Army was an offensive army that should be used to obtain his goal, i. e. domination in Europe. He wanted conflict with Germany when the Red Army was ready for the fight. So war was inevitable.

The historians don't agree upon when Russia really wanted to go to war. Some say 1941 and some say 1942. My opinion is that the plan was originally 1941, but the initial German successes made that time impossible. This became a moot point regardless, because Germany invaded June 22nd 1941.

If we would have made any changes to Russian activation in GS it should be something like Russia being activated in Spring 1941 if France was still alive by the end of 1940. Otherwise Spring 1942. I just don't think that's necessary to implement because if the Axis player has failed to take Paris by the end of 1940 they have probably lost the game already.

I´m back to the forums now although I will be likely changing my nickname soon.

Quoted above points brought by Borger are really interesting and a good synthesis of the choices that Germany and USSR had in the initial phase of the war. Fast Wehrmacht victory over french and british armies allowed the germans to avoid the two-fronts war that occured in WW1.

Previous performances of armies can have important consequences. Let´s think in japanese army not daring to engage with USSR forces in Eastern Siberia for the entire war because of the soviet-mongolian success in Khalkhyn Gol in 1939. Also, Kriegsmarine naval losses in Weserübung against a much less powerful norwegian naval forces could lead us to think that Sealion might have been an historical naval disaster. And finally, Red army poor performance in Winter War against a much more tiny finnish army. An hypothetical successful soviet campaign in Finland might have made the germans to think twice about invading USSR. Stalin´s purgues drove out many soviets officers since it was better considered loyalty to regime than military competence. Not much military competent officers leading Red Army units might explain both hard (for the soviets) finnish campaign and the initial disasters at the eve of Barbarossa.

But may be Red Army offensive disposition at the start of Barbarossa would explain more than a poor military performance, the easiness with which entire soviet armies were encircled by mobile german forces. Seemingly, the soviets "were not waiting" for the germans as it does mean a defensive disposition of the forces. So, as Borger has pointed, it seems that Wehrmacht attacked first but both Germany and USSR had offensive plans.