AAR - Joe (Axis) vs. Ronnie on BJR

[joerock22]

This is a BJR game between myself (joerock22) and Ronnie (rkr1958), with me as the Axis. He has already posted an AAR from his point of view, and you can probably get a recap of the action up to this point from that thread. France fell on April 28, 1940, and it is now June 7. I have been repairing and railing units to the coast ever since. I was considering Sealion, but as I'm looking at his defense (screenshot 1), I can tell that an invasion of the UK is pretty much shot. So instead, I sent forces up to Norway (screenshot 2). Those two u-boats are racing back from the Atlantic to block up the channel. It probably would have been safer to wait until next turn to move the transports, but I know for a fact that Ronnie has no naval force in the area. With 2 TACs, Oslo will more than likely fall in 2 turns, leaving my subs free to return to convoy hunting.
The new plan, unless a juicy Sealion opportunity presents itself, is to capture all the minor countries and invade the USSR in June or July 1941. I will also send forces to Egypt, mostly Italians. Meanwhile, I'm going to make use of a strategy that Borger (Stauffenberg) is currently using against me: build a couple strategic bombers and use them to take down the UK cities in Southern England. I can tell you from experiencing it on the other side that it's a great way to hamper the British economy. And my fighters will probably have superiority in technology and effectiveness over the RAF, so Ronnie will take heavier air losses too. Oil is a potential problem, but I'm always careful with the stuff and I've never even come close to running out in the mod. Even in vanilla ceaw, I've never gone into negative oil for more than 1 turn.
Screenshot 3 shows the casualties thus far. Believe it or not, I haven't lost any units yet (I think). My infantry casualties are light, but my armour and air suffered heavily. But taking those lossed enabled me to capture France early, so it all works out in the end.

[joerock22]

Email sent to Ronnie regarding Axis turn of October 5, 1940:

This turn was very up and down for me. One the one hand, the strategic bombing of London went very well. Fighter losses were 8:3 in favor of the Germans, as the Luftwaffe's superiority in effectiveness and experience comes into play. In Greece, things were terrible (I had attacked the previous turn, and the defender in Athens was at 7 steps at the start of this turn). I used the Italian BB to take off the entrenchment on Athens, then attacked with my 2 German bombers, but got no damage from either of them. I was only able to get 2 steps off with ground attacks, even though the defender was at 0 effectiveness. I probably don't need to tell you how aggravating that is. Plus, you're about to land on Crete. Stupid stubborn Greeks. The officers commanding those Luftwaffe bombers have been sacked and replaced for their egregious failures.

[joerock22]

Email sent to Ronnie regarding Axis turn of October 5, 1940:

I breathe a huge sigh of relief. The Italian BB and bomber took a step off each, and the healthy German bomber took 2 steps. That took Athens down to 4 steps, and the infantry cleaned up the rest. So Greece surrendered, and Yugoslavia was invaded. I don't think Belgrade has much of a chance of lasting beyond next turn, but I've been wrong before. The Luftwaffe repaired, sparing London further bombardment. The last thing I want to do is leave my fighters weak and give you an opportunity to take one out.

***

I think I dodged a bullet with this one. Ronnie has a UK corps and fighter on Crete, and this Greek campaign could have gotten really ugly for me. Fortunately, the horrible luck I got last turn reversed itself and allowed me to capture Athens. I have a 3rd German fighter in production, which will be ready for deployment next turn. That will make it easier to escort strategic bombing runs on London. As it is, one turn's worth of bombing cut the city's production in half, so I can afford to wait. My scientists are also about to achieve Dog Fight level 2, so that will help.

[Amicofritz]

Joerock 22:
If you play with the entire set of BJR houserules, that TAC based in Copenhagen (screenshot 2) is off limits, since cities, resources and forts are prohibited as air bases. I guess you owe Ronnie 1 oil...

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Joerock 22:
If you play with the entire set of BJR houserules, that TAC based in Copenhagen (screenshot 2) is off limits, since cities, resources and forts are prohibited as air bases. I guess you owe Ronnie 1 oil...

The house rules say that fighters may not base in cities, resources and forts but bombers can. So the above placement of a tac bomber in Copenhagen is legal.

Remember why the house rule was created. It was created because placing fighters in cities, resources and forts would mean strat bombers will have to fight the fighter in the hex instead of bombarding for PP losses. If the fighter is located in another hex then it will intercept and the surviving bomber steps could bombard hex causing PP losses.

Without such a rule a clever person could e. g. place a fighter in the Ruhr resource hex or the Ploesti oilfield. Then these hexes would become impervious to strategic bombardment. That would disrupt the purpose of strategic bombardment.

[joerock22]

Joerock 22:
If you play with the entire set of BJR houserules, that TAC based in Copenhagen (screenshot 2) is off limits, since cities, resources and forts are prohibited as air bases. I guess you owe Ronnie 1 oil...

Oh, believe me, I made sure it was legal before I did it. Like Stauffenberg says, that rule only applies to fighters. I'm very cognizant of the house rules, and I rarely break one nowadays.

[Amicofritz]

Ah, bombers are allowed. OK. Mea culpa! Have to read the house rules once again, it seems.

[joerock22]

October 25, 1940

Well, Yugoslavia has fallen, so all of the minor countries I wanted to conquer have been brought to heel. Ronnie has stationed a corps and a fighter on Crete, and I may decide to do something about that. The RN is probably stronger in the Med than the Italian Navy, but if I bring the Luftwaffe into play it will be very risky for his ships to intervene. I have plenty of time to decide, as I won't launch Barbarossa until April at the earliest (the invasion is still tentatively scheduled for the 1st turn of June). This turn, I once again gave London a breather to upgrade my fighters to Dog Fight Lv. 2. I also have a 3rd German fighter ready to be railed to the channel coastline. Next turn, the strategic bombing will resume, and will not cease until London's factories are reduced to nothing but smoking craters! The ever-growing German sub fleet continues to attack British shipping with relative impunity, but now I must turn my production over to building a mighty army for the invasion of the USSR. I now have 6-7 subs built or in the production queue, and that will have to be enough for now.

[joerock22]

December 4, 1940

Ronnie has withdrawn his fighter from Crete and did not oppose my bombings of London. It should take me one more turn to get the city's production down to zero. Fortunately, I remembered the winter landing rule before embarking on transports in the Med (no landings into hostile hexes in December to January in the Med). When I do land, I want to be able to do so on both sides of Heraklion at the same time. The screenshots show the trap I set. The Italian Navy has bombarded UK positions on the island, hoping to lure the RN into Luftwaffe range. I think Ronnie is too smart to fall for that, but you never know. I'm advancing cautiously in Egypt, probably just to get a feel for the Allied strength. Besides, now that I control all those hexes, when the Allies come into Libya later I will have advance warning.

[joerock22]

December 24, 1940

Well, I was right; Ronnie was too smart to fall for it, but 3 naval and 2 air attacks reduced the UK corps on Crete to 2 steps. I moved an Italian corps on a transport so I can land on the island. No matter what Ronnie does, I will have an Axis-controlled hex I can land in. I hope he stays in Heraklion, because then I can probably capture the city next turn. Elsewhere, London was reduced to zero production, and a couple sub attacks were made.

[joerock22]

February 2, 1941

Heraklion has been captured, and I launched at attack in Egypt because the British were weaker than I expected. Last turn, Ronnie found a sub in the channel, and the RN sortied to surround it. I killed 2 UK BBs, 1 in the Med and 1 off London. The screenshots show the evolving situation on those 2 fronts. I'm not worried at all about England. I have vast air superiority (the RAF is sub hunting in Scotland and Ireland), and plenty of subs in the area. Egypt concerns me because the DAK is down to 6 steps and it's possible that Ronnie could kill it with air and CV attacks, and 1 ground attack. If he does this, however, I will make sure it will cost him another UK unit. If I have to, I will send another German armour to the theatre. I think I have a serious chance at victory here if I can make it to Port Said before Ronnie can bring in substantial reinforcements.

[joerock22]

February 22, 1941

Ronnie retreated in Egypt, abandoning Alexandria in the process, and the RN withdrew from the Med. I launched some furious attacks, nearly destroying the British counterattack capability. Low supply is the greatest hinderance to my advance at this point. The Malta Supply Rule is no longer in effect, but I'm wary of sending any more planes or tanks to the theatre for fear of weakening Barbarossa. Another Italian corps is en route, and that transport on the coast is a German corps. Another one is ready to debark from Athens next turn. In other action, a large transport was attacked by multiple subs well outside of RAF range, and strategic bombers knocked London down to zero production again.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think this game shows very well what happens if the Allied player is so afraid of Sealion he protects against it at the expense of the defenses in Egypt.

I think there is only a window for Sealion from the time France falls till November 1940 when invasions aren't allowed. The threat of Sealion comes back in March 1941, but if the Germans attack so late then Barbarossa will suffer a lot for sure. But the Germans can afford an offensive towards Port Said and still get the air units back to Barbarossa in time.

So I think a good British strategy would be to reinforce Britain in 1940 and send these units to Egypt late 1940 so they can arrive in Egypt in time to hold the line along the Nile or the Suez. Britain can easily withdraw for some turns and keep the Axis at bay until it becomes critical.

In this game the Allied player captured Crete when he had so few units in Egypt. That was probably not very smart, especially since it got mauled by Axis air units and won't help protecting Egypt. 16 PP's are wasted on transports for this unit as well.

I think the Allied player must be very careful about saving his units in Egypt. If the Axis player brings a superior force then you just withdraw towards Iraq and just let them take what they take. Even if you lose Port Said you can send reinforcements to Kuwait and rail these units to Beirut, Jerusalem and Baghdad. Later you will get the initiative unless your forces are lost and then you can easily
kick out the Axis.

The main job for the Allies is NOT to hold Port Said, but to prevent the loss of the Iraqi oil fields. The Axis will burn a lot of oil even if they have to march unopposed to the oil fields. The Malta supply rule is still in effect so they can't have too many air and armor units. If Britain reinforces properly then they should have 3 fighters and 1-2 tac bombers in Iraq. That will at least match the Axis presence and then they can afford to counter attack.

A good idea could be to start taking out the Italians unless the DAK is within bomber range because then the Germans lose their flanks. You have to march through bad terrain to get to Iraq and supply level 1 means the Axis can only repair 1 step if depleted. Britain will have supply level 4-5 in Iraq and that will make a HUGE difference.

I think the best the Axis can do in such a situation is to just capture Port Said and halt there. Build a good defense in Egypt and be
happy to delay the Allied re-entry into Egypt. Every turn you fight in Egypt and Libya means Italy won't worry about being invaded.
I think the Axis should only consider going after Iraq if they've managed to destroy many British units in Egypt. Then they can get to Baghdad before new Allied reinforcemens can kick them out.

This proves why it's so important to not lose any British units in Egypt. Running away is probably better than defending unless the Axis attack force is so weak you think you can hold them. Whatever you do it's very important to defend so far east in Egypt that Axis air units in Crete can't reach your units. Then you won't be overwhelmed by the Luftwaffe.

Joe has done the right thing in this game and Ronnie must make some clever moves now to avoid losing the entire Middle East. Losing a BB was not good because unless it was reinforced by another BB then the Malta supply rule is not in effect.

It's very interesting for us BJR-mod developers to watch games played by others because I see that the playing styles differ a lot so we learn something every turn. Jim, Ronnie and I got into a habit of how each of us played and that meant we didn't have to worry about certain actions like Sealion. So the shock was probably big when Joe used it to such efficiency against Ronnie and Jim. It simply proves that nobody should think he has found the ultimate playing style. It's like chess. Even if you manage to beat Anand it doesn't mean you can beat Aronian or Topalev. There is always a chance to improve and learn. So watching how Joe plays against Ronnie is certainly very interesting. I learn some tricks I will use in future games. So beware everybody.

[joerock22]

I think the Axis should only consider going after Iraq if they've managed to destroy many British units in Egypt. Then they can get to Baghdad before new Allied reinforcemens can kick them out.

Great points as always, Borger. I quoted this one in particular because that's exactly what has happened.

Email sent to Ronnie regarding Axis turn of March 14, 1941:

An Italian BB reduced your 2 step infantry in Port Said by half, allowing the Italian armour to capture the city. That allowed me to attack the British armour with an Italian corps plus the DAK, so that unit is dead as well. Cairo was also taken with air support.

---

Egypt is mine, and since I have destroyed several British units, I'm going to drive into Iraq as quickly as possible. In a few turns, I will have 3 German corps and 1 motorized in the area, plus the DAK. Some Italians will stay behind to guard Egypt, and some will advance into Syria to protect the German flank as I head for the oil fields. The British are very weak in the Middle East now, and I always believe in exploiting enemy weakness wherever possible. Hopefully, by 1942 oil will no longer be an issue for the Axis armies. Forward! On to Baghdad!

The diversion of German troops will make Barbarossa less formiddable and probably later than I would have liked, but I think I will still be able to achieve my objectives. We're looking at a July invasion date now, with 6 tanks instead of the 8+ I normally like to start with. Again, I don't think this adjustment will prove too costly. I will merely have to rely on more infantry instead.

[joerock22]

April 23, 1941

Jerusalem falls in a hail of gunfire, and the remnants of the British army are completely driven out of Egypt. I hope to kill those 2 weak corps before they can escape to Iraq. I'm also moving on Cyprus, with 3 Italian naval units hitting the city this turn to lower entrenchment. It should be a quick capture, and then it's on to Beirut. Ronnie reestablished the Malta Supply Rule, but I planned for this and made sure to keep my units under the limit just in case. As more cities fall, it will give me even more breathing room. The Italian sub was sent back near Sicily to watch for UK naval units sailing past Gibralter. I would not be surprised if Ronnie tried to take the Italian fleet by surprise and send it to the bottom.

[joerock22]

August 1, 1941

Barbarossa begins. My invasion is not as strong as I would have liked, due to the number of German units I sent to the Middle East, but I still managed to capture 3 cities and kill the motorized corps north of Vilna. I also cut off a handful of garrisons. This is important because it will allow me to mop up these units with infantry while suffering relatively few casualties. I need more bombers and tanks, but these will have to wait until later. Right now I'm still producing infantry to get a sufficient number of units to penetrate deep into Soviet territory. I don't like to push too hard with the Axis Allies at first, since they are vulnerable to Russian counterattack. They will cut off a couple garrisons next turn, and I will probably send some Germans down to help them take Odessa. Meanwhile, a massive Axis army advances into Iraq. Perhaps this is overkill, but I'm taking no chances. I want that Middle East oil, and I'm sure Ronnie will send some reinforcements to Kuwait. I'm sending the Italian navy to the Atlantic via the Port Said transportation loop, since they will do absolutely no good in the Med. Perhaps I can force a confrontation between the RN and the joint Italo-German Navy before the U.S. enters the conflict.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I agree with you that if you overrun Port Said and move further then you must make sure you capture the Iraqi oilfields. Kuwait might be too far away. With the oilfields you get back the oil you burnt to get there and every turn you can keep it you will have a better chance to survive late in the war.

I don't think the Axis will be able to hold Iraq indefinitely, but if the Allies must spend time to take back Iraq and Egypt it means there will be no major threat to Libya and Italy. The attacks will only come from the west. Maybe the Allies will be forced to make an early Overlord to have a chance to win. So a good Axis strategy would be to keep a healthy reserve in France just in case.

Attacking into Russia is not as easy for the Axis as one thinks. The problem is not the good turns you will have, but the winter effects. The Germans can survive this, but the Axis minors will get into red efficiency and then they can be killed by a determined Russian player.

One problem for the Axis is that their units need to move almost every turn to get deep into Russia. That means they won't recover any efficiency by resting. So it's very important to make a halt a few turns before the winter so you can rest to stand a chance after winter strikes. If you move every turn then you will simply be too exhausted when winter strikes and even the Germans can be killed.

Russia has actually a quite strong counter strike capability with 7+ armor units and 8+ air units. If they concentrate these units on one of the front sections they can really damage the Axis if they're caught off guard. This is another reason the Axis should not be greedy in 1941.

The Russians have one Achilles heel and that is their airforce and armor units are very vulnerable to Luftwaffe attacks. So if they get too close to the Germans these units will get so mauled that Russia simply can't repair all the losses. The Germans will suffer too, but the tech and efficiency advantage will make the combat results favourable for the Germans. I've seen many Russians being too adventurous in 1941 and losing several armor units and some air units. Then 1942 will be very difficult.

I think a good strategy for the Russians is to keep the armor and air units just outside reach of the Luftwaffe. If you place your fighters well then you have range to your own rear units that only German bombers can reach. This means the Luftwaffe bombers will suffer if they attack these rear units. The Stukas aren't good against fighters and need support from the FW-190's and the BF-109's.

Since you started Barbarossa as late as August 1 1941 it means you get few turns of clear weather before winter will strike. So you should be able to get to lake Peipus in the north and use the Dnepr as a defense line through the winter. Maybe you even get as far as Smolensk.

This game is definitely not over despite the Axis success in the Med. They can lose it all in Russia in 1941-1942 if they're not careful. The Russians are very dangerous if they preserve their offensive firepower during the vulnerable period in 1941 and most of 1942.

Every good Allied player will escort their Russian convoy and that means the German subs have a problem hurting the Russian economy. Maybe strat bombers can do the job against Leningrad, Moscow and Stalingrad. Keeping the Russian production down is the number one priority of the Axis. Defeat is near if the Russians get a chance to build new units instead of just replacing losses.

I think we will see how Ronnie defends in Russia. If he does well and doesn't waste his air and armor force then I predict Joe is up to a tough job from 1943 and beyond. If Ronnie loses some of his offensive firepower in Russia in 1941-1942 then I think Joe might make it to the end. The western Allies have a lot to deal with and won't be a threat for quite some time unless they make a desperate invasion into France. If this invasion fails then the Axis will win for sure, but if it succeeds to form a beachhead then the Germans are in for a tough time.

I think the odds are like 65% chance that Joe will win and 35% chance that Ronnie will win. Joe has the initiative because of his success in the Med, but the war won't be won there.

[joerock22]

Yes, the war will definitey be won in 1942-1943 in Russia. I won't get too greedy in 1941. I have a flexible goal in mind, but I won't push forward unless I can do so in force and I will try to keep some space between me and main Soviet forces as winter approaches. Ronnie doesn't know it, but I only have garrisons in France, so if he tried to land now it could divert some troops needed for Barbarossa. But I know he realizes that the war will not be won or lost in 1941, so I'm gambling that I still have ample time to construct defenses in the west. From now on, all excess Italian production will be used to build an army in France, so hopefully the Germans can mostly focus on Russia. We'll see how it goes, and where Ronnie chooses to send the British and Americans first.

[joerock22]

As you may have already seen on Ronnie's thread, we are restarting our game to playtest new changes to the mod. I probably won't update here until the game starts to get interesting, like after the fall of France. Ronnie will surely put more into defending Egypt this time, so I'm going to try harder to go for Sealion, but we'll see what happens. In the meantime, you can follow the action on Ronnie's thread.

[joerock22]

New Game - Updated to BJR version 1.05

Turn 1 - Good first turn in Poland, minimal armour casualties. I altered my strategy to allow for more penetration in an effort to prevent Ronnie from withdrawing his corps and garrisons toward Warsaw.

Turn 2 - My change in strategy paid off, as I was able to attack Warsaw from 5 sides and take it without an air attack. This left both German bombers free to attack Copenhagen, so Denmark surrendered as well.

So I'm ahead of schedule right now, which is nice. In our two previous games, Paris has fallen on April 8, and I will take that again if I can get it. The key for me will be minimizing losses. Sealion is a high-priority objective.